Next May’s local elections will see gains for the Greens and the end of the Lib Dems

“I’m not a Tory” pleaded Nick Clegg  following an onslaught on Mumsnet.  He claims that the Lib Dems and the Tories are “as distinct as we’ve always been”.

Well, Mr Clegg, if it waddles like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be a ….. Lib Dem!  The enthusiasm with which Clegg, David Laws, Danny Alexander et al have embraced the Tory cuts agenda (in spite of pre election statements) makes it hard to differentiate between the Lib Dems and the Tories.

All this is great news for Labour and the Greens.  Both parties should pick up votes from the discredited Lib Dems locally.  They never were much to rite home about, and the defeat of their last two councillors will be one of the high points of the local elections next May. 

So who will benefit most? Probably the Greens.  If the Greens are serious about becoming the largest party next May, the must pick up both Brunswick seats from the Lib Dems. Labour can hope to pick up votes from traditionally anti-Tory Lib Dem who have found the ConDem coalition nauseating.  This could make the difference in Tory/Labour marginals such as Hangleton and Knoll and the two Portslade seats.

As I see it, eight months out, I predict the Greens and the Tories will end neck and neck, with neither having a majority.  Labour, with about twelve seats, will hold the balance of power.  As for the Lib Dems, the will have waddled off to oblivion.

(My apologies to ducks, none of which were hurt in the writing of this post)

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2 Responses

  1. When I asked that Public Question last autumn about music libraries which Councillor David Smith “answered” by saying that he wished that he could challenge me to a duel, he also recommended that I stand as a councillor in Rottingdean Coastal.

    It is an interesting idea. A close look at the figures and the nature of that long ward suggests that it is only Tory by accident.

  2. It will be lovely to see the Tories lose power in Brighton and Hove next May. It is a pernicious and dessicated administration lacking both talent and ambition.

    If Labour doesn’t win an absoIute majority (which is unlikely), I hope that Labour and the Greens will cooperate cleverly to form a radical coalition with social justice and environmental concerns at its heart. It’s certainly something I’m arguing in favour of.

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