Cameron wobbles while Brown has his best day as the polls suggest no progress for the Tories

The polls tonight are moving in a way that makes even more uncertain the result of the 2010 General Election (or should that be the May 2010 General Election?).  An Ipsos MORI poll, usually the most reliable / least contaminated of all polls, has a poll taken in 57 marginal seats currently held by Labour, has Labour on 36%, the Tories on 36%, and the Lib Dems on 20%.  

A YouGov poll for the Sun, often the one that gives the Tories the most favourable result, has the Tories on 35%, Labour on 28% and the Lib Dems 28%.  This poll, even if it is correct, would not give the Tories a majority by some distance.  Another poll published tonight, by Opinium for the Daily Express, has Labour on 28%, the Tories on 33% and the Lib Dems on 27%.

Cameron has begun talking up his prospects, saying what he will do on Friday and in the first weeks in government.  Others are being more cautious.  Even Sky News, which has all but announced the Coronation of Cameron, has just said that the election is “too close to call”.   What must be worrying for the Tories is that, in spite of the overwhelming promotion of his cause by the media, the polls are not moving in the direction that would see a Tory government elected.

One other development worth noting was Brown’s inspiring speach which most observers, even tradional Tory supporters, praised very highly.  With two days to go, anything could yet happen. There was a very interesting discussion on the Election Show on BBC News this evening.  It wasn’t about the March of the Cameron into Downing Street.  No, it was the problem Cameron will face on Friday.  If after his massive poll lead for well over a year cannot deliver a majority, then there will be immediate moves within the Tory Party over his leadership.  Even if he forms a minority government (he has ruled out electoral reform thereby making a coalition with the Lib Dems impossible, unless Nick Clegg sells out on day one!), he won’t have a mandate to make the cuts he is planning.

One final development, Peter Hain in tomorrow’s Independent, is calling for Labour supporters in ‘no hope areas for Labour’ to “vote intelligently”.  This is the nearest a Labour Cabinet member has gone in calling for tactical votes.  Had he gone further, he would have been in breach of Labour Party rules, and he would have faced immediate expulsion.  But the message is clear from Hain: vote tactically to keep the Tories out.

Small earthquake in opinion polls, few non-Tory casualties

There is a rather worrying opinion poll reported in today’s Daily Telegraph.  (I should really call it the Conservative-supporting Daily Telegraph.  The Today Programme on Radio 4 always refers to the Mirror as the “Labour-supporting Mirror” although mysteriously never refers to other papers being Tory-supporting).

The poll carried out by Crosby/Textor in 100 of the most marginal non-Tory seats had the Tories on 43%, Labour 31% and the Lib Dems 20%.  This, according to the pollsters, would see the Tories winning 74 seats from Labour (but not, presumably, Brighton Pavilion where the Green’s Caroline Lucas is likely to win), but none at all from the Lib Dems.

We are told that there is a hunger for change, and Labour will no doubt be the big loser, but the Tories are still unlikely to be the big winner.  If the nation wants change, it is not a change to the Tories.

I have a problem with the Crosby/Textor poll.  First of all, who the heck are Crosby/Textor?  They are hardly Mori, not even YouGov.  They sound a bit like the odd bunch who conducted the rogue poll that put Labour ahead in Brighton Pavilion.  It is a shame that the Telegraph chose not to publish a constituency by constituency breakdown of the poll, nor did the Telegraph state how many individuals were actually interviewed in total and in each constituency.

So, on first reading this poll rang alarm bells, but on reflection I feel that the campaign in the marginals still have a long way to go.  Tonight’s debate by our glorious leaders could yet have a significant impact on the outcome, assuming they don’t bore us to death in this sanitised debate.  Bring on a Santos/Vinnick debate where they abandoned the rules.  But that was fiction, not real politics!

Unpublished YouGov poll for the Sun puts Tories just 1 point ahead of Labour

A fascinating poll was conducted by YouGov for the Sun that had the Conservatives just 1 point ahead of Labour.  The poll was taken immediately aftr the Gordon Brown interview with Piers Morgan.  The Sun did not publish the poll, saying that it was never intended for publication!

It must be tough for those who made the call that the Sun was backing the Tories to see the polls narrow so alarmingly (or so pleasingly for others). It won’t be “the Sun wot won it” this time.

The fact that it was never published isn’t a problem.  The importance of the poll is that when the electorate is exposed to the real GB, rather than the smears and lies that is part of its aily diet, our Gordon excels.

This must be a matter of great concern for the Tories.  David ‘Call me Dave’ Cameron is identified as an old Etonian Tory toff.

Labour would be well advised to remember the saying “It’s the economy, Stupid”, but add to it “It’ all about Class”.

A hung parliament continues to look likely.