Small earthquake in opinion polls, few non-Tory casualties

There is a rather worrying opinion poll reported in today’s Daily Telegraph.  (I should really call it the Conservative-supporting Daily Telegraph.  The Today Programme on Radio 4 always refers to the Mirror as the “Labour-supporting Mirror” although mysteriously never refers to other papers being Tory-supporting).

The poll carried out by Crosby/Textor in 100 of the most marginal non-Tory seats had the Tories on 43%, Labour 31% and the Lib Dems 20%.  This, according to the pollsters, would see the Tories winning 74 seats from Labour (but not, presumably, Brighton Pavilion where the Green’s Caroline Lucas is likely to win), but none at all from the Lib Dems.

We are told that there is a hunger for change, and Labour will no doubt be the big loser, but the Tories are still unlikely to be the big winner.  If the nation wants change, it is not a change to the Tories.

I have a problem with the Crosby/Textor poll.  First of all, who the heck are Crosby/Textor?  They are hardly Mori, not even YouGov.  They sound a bit like the odd bunch who conducted the rogue poll that put Labour ahead in Brighton Pavilion.  It is a shame that the Telegraph chose not to publish a constituency by constituency breakdown of the poll, nor did the Telegraph state how many individuals were actually interviewed in total and in each constituency.

So, on first reading this poll rang alarm bells, but on reflection I feel that the campaign in the marginals still have a long way to go.  Tonight’s debate by our glorious leaders could yet have a significant impact on the outcome, assuming they don’t bore us to death in this sanitised debate.  Bring on a Santos/Vinnick debate where they abandoned the rules.  But that was fiction, not real politics!

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