The Tories are losing the election and the plot; Labour could yet win the election!

With the publication of every opinion poll, the chances of a Conservative victory in May become more remote.  Tonight’s ICM poll for the Guardian puts the Tories on 37% (down 3%), Labour on 30% (up 1%) and the Lib Dems on 20% (down 1%).

It appears that any immediate harm caused by Bullygate has been off-set by the Piers Morgan effect. And there is a sense that people are feeling that the alleged bully is, in fact, the bullied.

It now looks that we are heading for a hung parliament.  That’s not great for the economy, but better than having Chancellor George Osborne.

What is most fascinating about this poll are the underlying trends. The Tories have also lost ground on key policy issues, not least the economy, and also appear to be losing their campaign against Labour’s so-called death tax. Labour leads the Tories by eight points as the party with the best policy on care for the elderly.

The negative campaigning of the Tories is proving to be counter-productive. 

The possibility of Labour win in May should not be ruled out. It was always likely that, when faced with entrusting Cameron and Osborne with their financial future and that of the country, the voters would lose confidence, prefering to go with Brown and Darling.  Cameron and Osborne look lightweight by comparison.  They really don’t have it.

Vote tactically or prepare for the worst

The Taxpayers Alliance is advocating the end of universal Child Benefit amongst a list of money saving ideas.  According to one reporter on Radio 5 Live this morning, the Tories are hiding under their duvet covers, not wanting to be drawn on which cuts they will support.

What exactly do the Tories stand for?  David Cameron is trying to be all things to all people.  He won’t confirm that there will be public spending cuts after the elction, but says he is being ‘frank’ with the voters. How will he reduce public expenditure by £20 billion?  All he has done is to pledge to cut subsidised alcohol and food for MP’s and reduce ministerial salaries if the Tories win power at the next election – populist issues but as significant as spitting into a Force 10 gale at Cape Horn.

The best quote comes from Lib Dem Danny Alexander who said, “The Liberal Democrats have proposed not renewing Trident. David Cameron wants to increase the price of salads”.

At least Chancellor Alistair Darling is being more honest. He has said the government will have to “cut costs” and “shift resources to the front line” to deal with the recession’s effects. He said “hard choices” included looking at selling off “non-essential public sector assets” and shifting resources to “where they are needed most”. The devil will be in the detail.

Expect it to be bad if Labour get back in. Expect it to be a whole lot worse under the Tories. Our best hope is for a hung Parliament. That’s why the Tactical Voting Campaign is so important.