Reasons to be Cheerful … for 39 candidates in Thursday’s elections

‘Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3’ by Ian Dury and the Blockheads was released in July 1979, shortly after Margaret Thatcher had been elected Prime Minister. Cut, cut, and more cuts was the order of the day. On that occasions the Tories were able to make cuts to their hearts content. They didn’t have to rely on those disgraceful, turncoats, the Lib Dems, to help them. (I have gone for more than a week without a cheap comment about the Lib Dems – is this a record?).

But there are a number of people, 39 to be precise, who have reasons to be cheerful – those who I am confident will be elected (whatever the weather and their positions on the ballot papers). Some campaigns are too close to call, and in some wards I am only predicting one or two winners. The figures in brackets are the number of seatsup for election.

Brunswick & Adelaide (2) – too close to call

Central Hove (2) – too close to call

East Brighton (3) – a Labour 1, 2, 3: Gill Mitchell, Warren Morgan, Craig Turton

Goldsmid (3) – Melanie Davis, Alex Phillips (Labour, Green)

Hangleton & Knoll (3) – Dawn Barnett, Brian Fitch (Tory, Labour)

Hanover & Elm Grove (3) – a Green 1, 2, 3: Matt Follett, Bill Randall, Liz Wakefield

Hollingdean & Stanmer (3) – Jeane Lepper, Sven Rufus, Christina Summers (Labour, Green, Green)

Hove Park (2) – a Tory 1, 2: Jayne Bennett, Vanessa Brown

Moulsecoomb & Bevendean (3) – Maria Caulfield, Ayas Fallon-Khan (Tory, Tory)

North Portslade (2) – Bob Carden (Labour)

Patcham (3) – a Tory 1, 2, 3: Brian Pidgeon, Carol Theobald, Geoffrey Theobald

Preston Park (3) – Amy Kennedy (Green)

Queen’s Park (3) – Ben Duncan (Green)

Regency (2) – a Green 1, 2: Ania Kitcat, Jason Kitcat

Rottingdean Coastal (3) – a Tory 1, 2, 3: Lynda Hyde, Mary Mears, David Smith

South Portslade (2) – Les Hamilton (Labour)

St Peter’s & North Laine (3) – a Green 1, 2, 3: Ian Davey, Lizzie Deane, Pete West

Westbourne (2) – a Tory 1, 2: Denise Cobb, Brian Oxley

Wish (2) – too close to call

Withdean (3) – a Tory 1, 2, 3: Robert Nemeth, Ann Norman, Ken Norman,

Woodingdean (2) – a Tory 1, 2: Dee Simpson, Geoff Wells

In summary, the above predictions will see elected 8 Labour councillors, 13 Green, and 18 Tories. That leaves 15 seats that are too close to call. Privately, just between me and you, my four regular readers, I predict 8 of these will go Green, 3 to the Tories, and 4 Labour. A hung council made up of 21 Greens, 21 Tories, and 12 Labour councillors. A nightmare scenario for many ….!

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36 Responses

  1. Goldsmid – lab lab green
    H&K – lab lab lab
    H&EG – lab green green
    H&S lab lab lab
    M&B lab lab lab
    both portslades – lab lab
    PP lab green green
    wish – lab lab

    my prediction of labour winnables that i disagree with you on BPB.

    • whoops sorry queens park – 2 lab one green

      • But you are a Labour candidate Harris, we cannot reason your predictions as objective.

      • Just from what I have heard about results from canvassing ect ect.
        And my own experience obviously!
        Don’t think I am being too unrealistic really… I hate to mention the national trend and the 6 point lead but it really does have an impact

    • LOL.

      That is all.

      • im perhaps more confident about h&s and m&b but thats it. wish i know has a huge and efficient campaign in it.
        pp for me is the most unfortunate

        we will see eh

        what is your prediction then Bates?

      • I second that LOL!

  2. I agree with Harris but think we will take 2 or 3 in Preston Park and all three in Queens Park. Goldsmid & Regency too close to call. That’s a Labour Group of 23-26.

  3. What ever the result in Central Hove, I hope we’ll increase the turn out from the very poor 34% in 2007. Chris Hawtree, the Lib Dems, Celia and I have all put the hours in.

    Although I did speak to a resident in my street who genuinely believed Tony Blair was still PM.

  4. Westbourne is the one to watch. Many requests for Green posters. It’s Fiveways on Sea. A neighbour, infomed and looking at it disinterestedly,.said if he were Denise Cobb, he’d be getting worried, if you see what I mean..

    I am also noticing requests for posters from people in Hangleton and Wish, plus some pioneers in Hove Park, which is perhaps a very long shot, so well done with their valiant efforts.

    Shoreham could be interesting at some point.

    • Alas posters don’t always translate into votes. There were plenty of “Lib Dems winning here” posters for the general election.

      I do take comfort however in having not seen one Tory poster in Central Hove.

      • There is one Tory poster in central Hove, but it is on their campaign HQ. I do hope they didn’t go to the trouble of getting a load printed just for that.

        They will get the 900-ish votes there that they did last time – the question is whether anyone else can get it together to overhaul that. It is not impossible.

        Tory reluctance to show their colours calls the mind the great quote from the ex-footballer Terry Butcher: ‘I’m apolitical, but I vote Conservative’.

      • There is another Tory poster, as well as the one in the office window. Its presence prompted a neighbour to put up a Green one.

        All posters are equal, of course, but I do like the Green one with a window to itself behind elegantly curved glass on Church Road opposite the end of George Street.

      • My favourite Central Hove poster is the Green one in Blatchington Road which has been defaced and less than polite about Chris Hawtree.

  5. I agree with Caroline P re posters not equating to votes.

    Tory voters don’t like to put posters up; it’s the nature of the conservative animal. We had very few here in Hove Park during the GE and quite a fair number of LibDem and Labour signs. Alas for those parties, it didn’t equate to their final vote in HP.
    .

    • Out in Westdene today I saw a fair few Union Flags. Late swing to UKIP in Tory Fortress Withdean perhaps?

      Here in darkest Patcham the only posters I’ve seen are Green. But I still expect a Tory 1.2.3 – even if they are telling porkies about the Patcham park and ride on their latest leaflet (although the Theobalds and the other bloke opposed it, it was a Tory proposal, not Labour as the leaflet claims).

      (And I don’t suppose their colleagues in Withdean will be boasting of the “achievement” of getting Westdene Primary into the Patcham HS catchment either)

  6. Goldsmid- Green,Lab,Tory (Alex”nobody does it better” Philips)
    H&S- Green,Lab,Tory (Momma Grizzly enters the Arena)
    Moulsecoomb-Tory,Tory,Tory (Warren realises he may have to stomach a grn Mayor)
    Portslade North/South Tories drop 2 seats maybe.
    Hangleton- Return of the Fitch (rubles and all) and Janio Scrapes in because he has been a grafter for 4 years
    East Brighton- Lab,Lab,Tory (Peter Booth)
    QP,Green,Green,Lab (At this point the fighting starts and the coalition ends)
    Preston Pk, Grn,Grn,Grn (murder in the dark ensues)
    Wish-Tory,Tory ( Warren goes outside and we hear a loud bang!)
    Patcham- Tory,Tory,Tory ( Jason Kit-cat celebrates 4 mores years of that Green sport “Theobald baiting”
    Brunswick & A- Grn,Lib (It’s tough job but somebody has to do it)
    Westbourne- Tory,Tory (we all realise the bang was a sugar puff spontaneously combusting)
    Withdean – Tory,Tory,Tory( Robert “the opposition’s nemesis” Nemeth)
    Central Hove- Tory,Tory -(Should have put Simon Burgess here Warren)
    H&EG – Grn,Grn,Grn (The tofu is on Bill)
    Rott Coast- Tory,Tory,Tory
    Regency- Mr & Mrs
    HP-Tory,Tory
    Woodingdean-Tory,Tory

    Thus the Labour Grp will realise for the second time in 8 years they have been done to by the Greens and will not want an awful lot to do with them when they are in such a weak position- And the Greens won’t need them anyway, if there was any chance of anything different happening we would have Messrs Burgess and Bodfish back on the scene but they are politically astute and can clearly see the outcome.

    • Clearly…

      • Harris I’m sure that you and the likes of Claire calder and Dan Wilson will get a crack next time and will make good Cllrs that will give the Green machine a run for it’s money, but alas this time you’re on the outskirts of Jurassic Pk Labour…face it both you and the Greens are replenishing from the same well and it’s nearly dry.

    • Well now Nobby: first of all you threaten to stone Christians like me THEN you label Alex Phillips a Tory!!! You had better not go out at night unescorted for the next few days…

      • Argus headline: Green Party candidate tells ghost not to go out unescorted at night…

      • Apologies guys the Green is Alex what party is before the comment is irrelevant i’ve just made general comments about candidates, Alex can attack me anytime she please’s-what i wouldn’t like is Sven with a pair of Nunchucks.

  7. I am not going to say anything about Cental Hove other than that other parties appear surprised by the Greens being there, but the residents were not. Warm greetings lighted the dark of winter.

    • I would second that – Central Hove has been my favourite place to canvass in this campaign.

  8. What lovely fun all this speculation is. However, for my part and the rest of the Green Party candidates in Queen’s Park, the canvassing goes on till the last moment and nothing will be taken for granted. Its been a great contest cleanly fought (for the most part) on all sides, but in the end it is the electorate who decide and not the sephologists.

  9. Well I would say us Central Hovians are a polite lot.

    I wondered if anyone other than the Lib Dems had discussed AV with voters. A New Statesman poll has the No vote 14% head. Pretty damning for Clegg & Co.

    • I have talked about it a lot. People ask.

      What nobody can tell is how the Referendum will affect the turnout.

      Preoccupied, I have not followed either campaign that much but I suspect the subject has not engaged the public. It could have done. Look how fired up people got here about seeing off a directly elected Mayor and becoming enthused about the committee system.

  10. So no-one seems to be predicting a majority for any party. This could be the nightmare scenario for the largest party if they do not enter a fomal coalition. Four years of having to fight everything an issue at a time, whilst making massive cuts to services. Easy picking for the opposition. The chance for an anti-tory pact before the election was lost, so the winners will have to live with the consequences. I can’t see a Green/Red coalition lasting, and would prefer another Tory minority Council – which has managed its business well given the circumstances – to endless bickering about who is to blame/who takes the credit from the other two. I don’t think the Green Party will want to be exposed to the cuts alone – but Labour would be foolish to join in delivering them. How about a Green/blue coalition? The Tories want the cuts, and the Green Party can deliver them in the least harmful way possible, and still blame the Tories

    Still no defence of the latest Green Party nonsense bar chart and claims I notice. Come on Chris, Luke and the rest of you – defend your own publicity. And BPB – don’t forget your over the top condemnation of Labour leaflets with far less contentious contents. You said Labour had lost one of your votes at the time – if you were going Green with it, then surely you should take it back – or maybe go Lib Dem?

  11. Dr Faust – yes, still no defence of the Green “last citywide poll” bar graph from 2009, funny that.

    No, there will be no need to fight everything one issue at a time, and there is no need for a formal coalition under the current system – the only vote that matters is the vote to elect a Leader at annual council. That Leader then appoints the Cabinet who take all decisions, cllrs outside the Cabinet have little or no opportunity to vote on anything substatntive bar the Budget.

    Leaders – once elected – cannot be removed by votes of no confidence, there has to be an election, with 21 days notice and alternative candidates in place.

    Unless and until the committee system returns, the election of Leader is the only vote that matters. If the Greens are the third largest party, are they going to allow the election of another Tory Leader? I think not.

    • Warren, I responded to your nonsense a few days ago on the 26th (“what is it with Warren and the Sugar Puffs?”)

      I’ll say it again – combining percentages from 3 parliamentary contests is flawed because it ignores concerted anti-Tory tactical voting among voters on the centre-left. In each ward a significant proportion of our followers voted for the party most likely to keep the Conservatives out, and yes, in Pavilion some traditional Labour voters voted tactically for Caroline Lucas on that basis, so it wasn’t just one way. AV would at least show the true picture here.

      The Euro result is a better indicator for the local elections due to the absence of tactical voting. The strongest argument against it is the relatively low turnout for that election, although it is still comparable to most recent local elections.

      Put up with it if you can for just a few more days, by Friday I promise you we will have even more compelling evidence of Labour’s third place city-wide.

      • Aggravated Greens teehee

      • The Euro elections were fought on European issues – where is the comparison with a local council election? They were also fought on a completely different basis – multi-member constituencies with party lists. You are obviously right in the number of people who voted for each party, but only within the context of the election that was taking place. But the point is that to claim that this was an election fought on the City boundaries is just a lie – admit it! And what about the claims that Labour will be making deep cuts to services that you will resist? – without admitting that you will be making exactly the same level of cuts.

        The good thing I take from this – although we all knew it already – is that the Green Party do not represent some kind of ‘new’ politics – just the same old grubby nonsense that we get from everyone else. You’re just like the rest of us really.

  12. I’m in no way convinced tactical voting in a 70% poll last year is outweighed by non-tactical voting in a 30% poll two years ago, both fought against a backdrop of a Labour govt.

    It is not nonsense to suggest that vastly greater numbers of people voting Labour than Green – even with our undoubted unpopularity 12 months ago – will not be improved upon by higher motivation amongst Labour supporters to vote, large numbers of Lib Dem switchers, and yes, people returning to Labour from the Greens realising that its time to get real, stop protest voting and send a clear message to Cameron and the Tories on Thursday.

    • Ouch…This is typical Brighton Labour blog-spin and people are getting tired of this way of campaigning.

      Greens have set out their polices and are responding to Labour’s misinformation – that includes their graphs.

      Labour’s position seems to boil down simply to who can win here; surprising when Labour have lost so many elections in Brighton and Hove….

      Question: why are they so worried?

      In the 2010 general election Labour said only *they* could win in Brighton Pavilion constituency.

      Then in May Caroline Lucas won for the Greens.

      If Labour really are so popular why don’t they talk about their policies rather than graphs all the time?

      Why don’t they have some honest constructive convictions…?

      Let’s hope local politics moves forward after these elections.

      • Simon – both parties use these damned charts on every leaflet – at least have the decency to recognise that both are playing the same game. The Labour and Green Party position is that the other can’t win here so vote for us. The Green Party don’t believe they can win based on the ‘Green-led’ line, and the seats where they have prioritised candidates, and Labour can’t win – so all a bit pointless. No policies from either party – just warm words about resisiting the cuts – which is a deceipt on the voters.

      • Although it’s sadly unlikely (if the polls are correct), a switch to AV would enable everyone to replace the stupid graphs with some actual policies on their leaflets. I cannot understand why anyone active in party politics continues to support an electoral system that dictates this kind of ridiculous campaign material.

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