We’ll weather the weather whatever the weather whether we like it or not

A heavy storm descended over Brighton and Hove earlier this evening. I was returning home from a dinner at the Lodge in honour of the Royal Couple when I was soaked through to the skin by a terrible down pour. We can all be grateful that the Fairy Tale marriage was blessed by wonderful sunshine.

But it made me think of Thursday and the impact the weather might have on the result. Rain all day will produce a very low turnout, and all bets are off as to who will win overall. In areas such as Patcham, with the organisation and resources of the Theobalds, any Green challenge will fail hopelessly. In a ward such as Regency, with all polling stations in close proximity to where voters live, the weather will have less of an impact and would impact equally on Labour and Green turnout.

But rain during the day, clearing up and becoming sunny around 6pm will favour Labour and the Greens. The Tories, traditionally, get their core vote out during the day. Heavy rain will frustrate their efforts and would make some of the secondary challenges by Labour and the Greens more effective. It could make Hove as a whole very unpredictable. Take Westbourne, Wish, Central Hove, North Portslade, South Portslade, and Hangleton and Knoll wards, all Tory candidates will be hoping (and in the case of Bishop Brian Oxley, praying) that it won’t rain on Thursday.

By contrast, rain in the early evening could well see the return of a Tory controlled Council. Labour and the Greens will struggle to get its vote out and the Tories will retain all its seats in Hove, and pick up a couple in Moulsecoomb and Bevendean. It could also make gains in the west of Hove.

Glorious sunshine should help ensure that turnout is not embarrassingly low in an election that has, in all truth, failed to capture the imagination.

My hope is for rain in the day, giving way to a fresh, warm late afternoon and evening. That will most benefit the Greens and Labour, ensuring that a Green/Red coalition becomes a real prospect.

5 Responses

  1. I think that’s conjecture really, the same as the ‘lowest on the ballot paper least votes’ thing.

    I went through the last election results and found that no-one who appeared last for their party on the ballot paper seemed to suffer anymore than anyone else.

    Happy to be slapped down on this though.

    • O.K I’m wrong. 57% of the time the lowest ranking candidate in the alphabet came last at the 2007 election. (Of course some of the seats have only 2 standing.
      It’s a bit silly and shows how some of the voting public don’t think.
      Does this mean it’s No to AV then…
      I hate have the surname ‘Young’ in a 2 seat marginal…

  2. The weather and where you appear on the ballot paper do have an effect on your result ,which is shame really as you have to become a cllr first and build up a personal vote in order to cross it all out.
    I think this will show with H&S with Jean Lepper being returned along with Rachel Bates and one of the Greens, not so sure we should be considering some of these Hove results at this election as the tory vote nationally is holding up and the Green Machine poaches votes from “stay puff” and the rest of the Labour crew, be interesting to see where the collapsed Liberal vote goes-if it collapse’s they’re holding up in Lewes & Mid Sussex but that’s “the Shire”.

  3. BPB, I don’t think the Comedy Coalition will last more then a few months if it happens that is and the tories don’t sweep the board Ha..ha..on a serious note both the Greens and going by what Mr “Stay Puff” Morgan has to say the Labour party think they are going to be the largest party and in the driving seat.hhhmm, maybe the council should be selling inner ringside seats for the best of 12 rounds that will develop at the count on the 6th- I can’t wait to see Warren’s 50,000 punch combination and the Kit-Cat tag team..I would be behind Sven he knows martial arts!..and Gill “Medusa” Mitchell..beware Brian Fitch only talks a good fight!, I like Brian really i used to deliver his Morning Star in Waldegrave Rd when i as kid and he gave me some Rubles at Xmas.

  4. I am an interested non-involved observer. In the 60s/70s I was a Lab. activist in Brighton, moved away for 30 years and returned to Sussex in 2006. My guess for Thursday is Cons 24, Green 22 and La b 8. I agree a Green tsunami is likely to rise. Green posters though not prolific outweigh Lab ones where it matters(Preston Park, Hollingdean). It is a sign that Lab is not mobilising momentum to get its vote out.(B Fitch is an exception though).So Greens will get previously split wards and those targeted like Brunswick and H & S. Lab will get seats in Portslade, E Brighton and B.Fitch. Moulscoomb will see a rise in the Green vote that will allow 3 Tories to get in despite Libs and Tories not in poster evidence anywhere.
    The weather makes less difference to the progressive vote than it did 40 yrs ago-the proles have cars! I wish good luck to all especially Brian Fitch.

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