Labour talking a good fight and paying respect to Pat Hawkes

The Honey Monster (Craig Turton) has reacted to my comment that “So disorganised are they (Labour) in some seats that members have complained about not being given posters for their windows”. Craig says that could be because “like in East Brighton ward – where doorstep enthusiasm for Labour far exceeeds 2003 and 2007 – demand for posters is outsripping supply. Same in Hangleton and elsewhere.” Nice try, Craig, but the empty windows suggests otherwise. There is still no enthusiasm for Labour. Brighton and Hove is not like the rest of the country – the Caroline Effects will still make a difference.

As for enthusiasm for Labour in the future, Blue Labour isn’t going to play at all well in Brighton and Hove. I wanted Red Ed Milliband to win. What on earth is he doing? He is proving to be a disaster, while Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper are, at least, putting some clear water between Labour and the Tories.

Steampunk suggests that Labour has given up on Central Hove: “A Labour party member told me ruefully last weekend, ‘no matter what you do, the Tories will always win in Central Hove’. So I suspect that having come fourth last time round, this year they have been focussing on the more winnable wards further out such as Wish, Hangleton and the two in Portslade. Or perhaps everyone has gone to Queens Park?”.

Blue Lady Linda says that “There is a hive of activity going on in most of the wards from our activists: telephone canvassing, envelope stuffing, literature deliveries, knocking up and general cross ward support. There is much that goes on ‘under the radar’”. Lady Linda is right that traditionally the work of the Tories is not that obvious but they have been able to get out its vote.

She says that she thinks that all parties other than the Tories have given up on Hove Park. “I come to this conclusion, because I have yet to see any literature or sighting of a candidate, other than Tory, in Hove Park Ward.”

MJ must be a Labour hack because who else would come out with the following tosh: “Word is that the Greens are under pressure in Regency and are stalling in Queens Park and Brunswick. They may also drop one seat in Hanover, Preston Park and Goldsmith. The Labour vote is too high to see Green or Tory gains.” There’s no such ‘word’, there is no such pressure, they are not stalling, and the Greens are not going to drop seats. Luke Walter’s reaction is right when he simply responded “LOL”.

The love within Labour is overwhelming. Baron Pepperpot writes: “As a paid up member of the Labour Party who fully supports our Queens Park campaign, I would like to say how happy I would be to see us get completely stuffed in Hollingdean and Stanmer…”. Wow! I’m intrigued as to why you feel this strongly. Do say more. And if this is the mood with Labour ten days out from an election, what levels of fratricide can we expect if my predictions are correct and Labour is left with a smaller rump than they currently have?

Christina Summers, one of the Green candidates has responded to my praise of Luke Walter and his campaigning zeal: “Don’t worry BPB, Luke is most definitely not a lone Green campaigner in Hollingdean & Stanmer…and our opponents are most definitely not complimentary nor do they resemble any sort of firework…apart from the occasional banger…usually when we’ve leafleted their homes.”

As regular readers will know, I have been predicting two Greens and one Labour (Jeane Lepper) being returned in Hollingdean and Stanmer. This would see the end of the long and illustrious council career of Pat Hawkes who has represented the area for many decades. She has also been an active trade unionist, rising to be President of the NUT. Consistency in service (although not always in views) means that she deserves respect, and she certainly has mine.

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9 Responses

  1. Hmm, I got a PDF of the Labour poster via email. Not quite the same, but nonetheless I’ve seen several in windows around 7 Dials/Prestonville (more than Greens, to my surprise.)

  2. I wouldn’t say there are divisions within Labour, but the party needs renewal if it is to survive locally-lest the Greens wipe it off the map. There you go, honesty about a real threat. The old order must go. Now to curtail speculation, I am not a sitting councillor or a candidate. Just a Labour member.

  3. The Barons comments are interesting and I think his wish might just come true with 2 of the candidates being ousted, I also agree Labour is looking at national trends a little too much and not allowing for the Brighton Left Wing Trendy voters who like opting for supposed cuddly Greens(wolves and sheep’s clothing spring to mind), they’re also putting a tad too much effort in Queens Park where they will come unstuck once again, no mention of the collapse of the Green vote in the general election in Kemptown yet from Mr Morgan as another pointer to taking QP.

  4. Well, 12 days to go and we will see who is right in Hollingdean & Stanmer, Regency, QP, Hanover & EG, PP, Brunswick and Goldsmid. Those wards will determine how many seats the Greens hold against the Labour challenge and win from the Lib Dems or Labour. I think at best they will have a net loss or gain of one.

    Labour will certainly gains seats from the Tories in some or all the following wards: Hangleton, Wish, M&B, North Portslade and South Portslade.

    The Greens will have to gain significant numbers in the first set of wards to outweigh Labour gain’s in the second if they are to be the larger group.

    • There is the interesting case of Westboune.

    • It will be a test of what works best at getting voters to the polling station, will we see the phone being used much more in thie election then previously, your only as good as your canvass Warren and i suspect you’re using the one from the Burgess campaign, no doubt we’ll see the return of Dr Turner and Mr Lepper to try and woo a few ambivalents to the polling booths.
      Think you could be onto something with your predicited Hove gains but you’re up against the A-Team in KT, you’ll know you’ve been in a fight on the 6th.

  5. BPB – you are of course free to interpret the state of politics in B+H or nationally as you wish, but your uncritical approach to the Green Party, and willingness to accept any observation (often from Green Party candidates) about the shortcomings of Labour is quite tiresome.

    You tell us that Ed Milliband is a ‘disaster’ – but let’s look at how the party is actually doing. According to the latest ICM/Guardian poll, (GE in brackets) – Labour 39%(29); Conservatives 35% (36.5); Lib Dems 15% (23). Now this may change next week, but the lessons I would take from it are – Labour is doing well nationally; the Tories have not lost support despite the cuts – which many people support – and the Lib Dems are taking the flak.

    The politics of Brighton are different, but many are not affected by the local issues and still vote on national policies.

    Although this blog is mainly to discuss B+H issues (or rather parties/tactics, as issues are rarely touched on), we need to remember to look outwards sometimes.

  6. Dr Faust – ICM continue to be generous to the Lib Dems by weighting due to past vote. YouGov’s daily tracker poll has them consistently at 9 or 10%, the Tories on around 36 and Labour 42 to 44%.

    Rallings and Thrasher are predicting Labour gains of around 1300 at these elections, reversing the losses of 2003 and 2007.

    Ghost – you wish we were relying on a year old canvass. On Saturday in my ward alone we spoke to 100 people, 70 of them uncontacted since 2007 or earlier, or never contacted at all. 65 voters were Labour, and just three admitted to being Tory. We’ve been doorknocking every week for a year. You do the maths.
    And in terms of voter contact we are nowhere near the top of the Labour held/target wards.

  7. I know you have to sing for your supper with the Unions Warren and show canvass returns for your performance related pay, I wouldn’t spend a year knocking doors although i appreciate it works for you and you’re a popular Cllr in your ward and come across as pretty astute but i am sure many will have moved,died and forgotten you called as well as changed their minds about how they’ll vote, i always say a 100% canvass in the 3 months before the election…lets have a drink after the count and discuss our different thesis’ on elections..in the Greenhouse Effect..a novel choice of venue to be sure!, I’ll buy the Sugar Puffs and some tofu in case Blakes Seven turn up.

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