Will Labour have any councillors in Kemptown after May 5th?

The Ghost of Nobby Clarke asks “What odds that the Labour Party have NO councillors in Brighton Kemptown after May 5th? (including East Saltdean, Telscombe Cliffs and Peacehaven). 30 Town councillors, 9 district councillors and 14 City councillors are up for grabs (the two conservative held County council seats are not up for election this year).”

No way, says the attractive Craig Turton: “Unlikely I’d say based on canvass returns and door step reactions. Certainly in EB there has been a level of voter enthusiasm for Labour which I can’t recall before in 2003 or 2007, eg; being asked for posters to display unprompted. QP colleagues tell a similar story.”

Sugar Puff addict, Warren Morgan, agrees with Craig: “No, no blue/red coalition (said in my calmest voice). Yes, there will be Labour councillors in Brighton Kemptown after May 6th, between 7 and 9 I predict. Hanover…I can’t remember seeing Labour posters on Elm Grove last April, but they are there now.”

Of course there will be Labour councillors left in Kemptown after the elections. The aforesaid Morgan and Turton, along with Gill Mitchell, will all be re-elected with thumping majorities in East Brighton. (I have this image of Warren and Craig, together with two of the Tory candidates for the area, Peter Booth and Kelvin Poplett, not a hair on their head between them, tucking into bowls of Sugar Puffs – how surreal is that?).

Labour is making a mark on the campaign in Queens Park, but the record of the Green councillors over the last four years should see them through, even though two of the sitting councillors are standing down. Expect Ben Duncan, who scraped in last time, to top the poll this time. It is possible that Queens Park might produce a split result, with one Labour candidate being elected. My money, though, remains with a Green 1, 2, 3.

Warren points to Labour posters in Elm Grove which is, I believe, still in Brighton Pavilion. Correct me if I am wrong.

And then there is Moulsecoomb and Bevendean (or Moulsecomb, as Labour continues to spell it on their website). This ward is currently split, with Labour councillors Mo Marsh and Anne Meadows, and the Tory councillor, Maria Caulfield. My judgement might go AWOL when confronted by Marsh, Meadows and Caulfield (don’t get me started on Jeane Lepper …), but I think the lovely Ayas Fallon-Khan and Maria will prevail. In a change from previous predictions, Cath Slater and Anne Meadows will be neck and neck, and I think Anne might just inch it.

So, in reply to the Ghost, yes, there will be Labour councillors in Kemptown on May 6th. I predict that there will be four of them.

11 Responses

  1. Hopelessly wrong again for both M&B and QP, but I’m not going to disagree with your prediction for EB. You may not have noticed in other elections around the country but results tend to go the same way according to the national swing, particularly in neighbouring wards, not in divergent directions.

    Why would the record of Green councillors in QP “see them through” when two of the three are standing down? Personal votes are not transferable.

    Yes, I know Hanover is in Pavilion (though half of it was in Kemptown at the last local elections). I was replying to another earlier comment about HEG Labour posters.

  2. “No way, says the attractive Craig Turton” – Geoffrey – is this you? Anyway, as Warren points out, your QP personal record prediction is way off given two of the three Greens are standing down. Lesson for the Blogger: listen to Labour’s Honey Monster!

  3. Not me Craig. I don’t hide under a nom de guerre or respond to speculative assessments of how many each party will end up with after the votes are counted. Like Warren and yourself we have scores on the doors from the canvas returns we are not tempting fate by sharing them here (you may imagine a Mona Lisaesque smile on my mush though!). We must meet for a drink after the count to compare campaign notes.

  4. Not me Craig. I don’t hide under a nom de guerre or respond to speculative assessments of how many seats each party will end up with after the votes are counted. Like Warren and yourself we have scores on the doors from the canvas returns and we are not tempting fate by sharing them here (you may imagine a Mona Lisaesque smile on my mush though!). We must meet for a drink after the count to compare campaign notes.

  5. Meanwhile, on the other side of town, Wish goes under-reported. Labour has flown in workers, and the Independent Barnards are giving it welly. These sense disgruntlement with the Tories. And up in Hangleton there are a load of of Forward with Fitch posters up. So, with the wild card of Jo Heard, there could be many a darkl and stormy night up there despite the sunshine. Will Brian do a deal with Roger French to have a Number 5 as campaign wagon?

  6. What does frustrate me about these elections is the voters cannot judge a persons desire to serve, because they never get a full insight into their character through the literature they receive.

    I have met and spent time with some people who are contesting this election. Some, and I wouldn’t use this forum to criticise, I think do not deserve to represent us, others do.

    The reality is, and I’m naming three people for positive reasons here, that Luke Walter, Tom French and Jo Heard will make outstanding community representatives. And ultimately that is what it is all about. Luke, Tom and Jo are passionate about their area, and devoted to community. Yet none of them are safe in their contests.

    On the other hand, I know, and know of, some who may be safe. And it seems an injustice when compared.

    But ultimately that’s what party politics does.

    We can bleat the party political line as much as we like, but ultimately that folly is easily recognised. And it is ugly, it is tedious. I have relentlessly thrown sarcasm at people of all sides on here. Unbelievably some haven’t even noticed it. I am a Labour Party member, it’s good to belong somwhere, but they are never spared any objections of mine.

    This forum is fun, and we know much of it is hot air, but what really matters is the way peoples lives are going to be affected after May 5th. Lets have a rational chat about that.

    I just hope the right people are elected, and the silly posturing is understood as just that

    • The Baron is onto something here.

      I should say that a doodle in these here parts, at this sort of time, is a bit of a relief after the long haul since dawn. It must surely be an engagement with the multiple concerns that emerge along the way that propels anybody to keep at it.

      A whole load happens but the time to chronicle it would eat into the next day.

    • I agree with you. At local level we need community minded representatives whatever their colour.

      Some Independents are more independent than others but with Jo Heard her track record of community and charitable work speaks for itself. What fun if someone like her held the balance of power!

      And finally on this note if Cllr David Watkins gets re-elected how long before he is back as a Lib Dem?

      Voting Day approaches with Postal Votes already in play. Good luck to EVERYONE standing, may the best candidates shine through in these last days.

      • I don’t know Jo Heard, but from what I know her charity work is a paid position – none the less worthy for that, and the cause is a particularly good one, but I’m not sure it’s quite the matter for congratulation that some posters seem to think.

        Also, as Jayne Bennett showed, once a Tory, always a Tory.

        The danger of voting for independents is that – unless, as above, their real allegiance is pretty clear – you don’t know what you’re getting.

        As for David Watkins, I don’t believe he has a strong personal following and therefore don’t think he will poll well. In the extremely unlikely event of him being returned again, I would think it even more unlikely that he would return to the Lib Dems.

  7. Will Labour have any councillors in Kemptown… short answer – Yes

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