Greens to win between 8 and 22 seats in May – so much for predictions!

A few days ago I asked you to make your predictions on the balance of power on Brighton and Hove City Council. I have predicted that the Greens will end up with almost the same number of seats as the Tories, between 20 and 22 seats each, leaving between 10 and 12 seats for Labour.

‘Numbers Game’ is predicting a slump for The Greens: “What is odd, is that if you add all the wards up that the Greens claim to be winning (and few non-Greens think they have a chance in a fair number of them) then they still won’t have enough seats to take the council outright. So they have a losing strategy. More likely us that they will be reduced to a rump of just eight seats, similar to their dramtatic loses in London last May.”

I really don’t think that is at all likely. As has often been said before, what happens elsewhere is no guide to what might happen in Brighton and Hove. The Greens position locally is much stronger than, say, in London.

Baron Pepperpot wrote week or so ago: “I believe the Greens will take 17 seats at the election but Patcham won’t be amongst them.” More interestingly, the Baron thinks that Queens Park will return to Labour: “I think Labour stand a real chance of winning all or some of their Queens Park seats back but elsewhere it’s looking good for the Greens.” He predicts the following seats for the Greens: Brunswick 1, Regency 2, Hollingdean and Stanmer 3, Hanover and Elm Grove 3, Queens Park 1, St Peters and North Laine 3, Preston Park 3 and Goldsmid 1.

I will post my predictions for seat in the Brighton Kemptown constituency later.

Advertisements

12 Responses

  1. Ok, a 3 minute, a literally back of the envelope job (and I’m not saying who I think will win what and where). Unsurprisingly I think Labour will do much better than BPB does:

    Conservatives 19
    Labour 26
    Greens 9

    with a margin of error of 2/3 or maybe 4 seats either way for all 3 main parties. And maybe 1 for the Lib Dems.

    I think incumbency will help – all 13 Labour cllrs are seeking re-election in the same wards, at least 5 Greens are standing down or moving wards, and at least 3 Tories are standing down or moving wards. Half the Green group stood down at the last two elections and they did well, but that was against a Labour council and govt.

    • Something to be said for your prediction Warren..people will turn out to vote Labour and some tories will stay at home or vote UKIP if they have that choice, but can you get the people on the ground to get out your vote like The Green Machine..Barlow will possibly pinch a seat and you may grab a couple elsewhere maybe Portslade or QP but expect to drop some along the way with Turton edged out and the Goldsmid seat taken by the machine and Simpson possibly losing H&S..those were the day’s “Backwell, Simpson,Sweeting”

  2. My prediction is Conservative 24, Green 16, Labour 14. This includes the Greens taking both Brunswick & Adelaide seats, Labour, Conservative and Greens getting 1 each in Goldsmid. I predict that the Greens will pick up just 1 seat in Hollingbury & Stanmer with Labour holding 2 of the seats. I think Labour will take all 3 seats from the Greens in Queens Park. I believe Mr & Mrs Kitcat will win by massive majorities in Regency, which will cease to be a marginal ward and become a rock solid Green ward. These are not the results I would wish for but I think they may be close the actual result.

  3. I would be very supprised if the Greens lost all of the seats in Queens Park (definately one of the most interesting wards)

    Although councillors standing down can be a disadvantage it can also be an advantage. It means there are more people commited to working very hard for the campaign. As you have the current councillors and the new candidates.

    The current Green councillors there are great at elections. Paul Steadman was target constituency coordinator (or something like that) for the general election. And they are all still working hard to make sure that Greens get re-elected, the new candidates have access to loads of experience.

    Personally I’m pretty hopeful that we’ll keep all three seats. Worst case scenario would be losing 1 or 2.

  4. The council will be split evenly three ways almost exactly

    Tories, Labour, Green on 16-18 each

    2 Lib Dems

    3 Saltdean Lido in Rottingdean

  5. My estimate is that the Greens will get between 18 and 22 seats.

    Its much harder for me to predict the other parties as I don’t know whats going on in the wards where its Labour Vs Tories.

    Warren Morgan’s predictions seem very optimistic!

  6. Conservatives 21
    Labour 14
    Greens 19

  7. The Election has sometimes entered my dreams, and life can indeed often seem like a David Lynch production, tho’ of course one should not liken any current councillor to the Log Lady. That said, I hear that there was a bizarre ritual as some Tory councillors left the Council Chamber after the Budget debate.

    Meanwhile, a mite surreally, a woman invited me in the other day. There was some good talk, and on the way out she gave me a green cowboy hat which was in the dark hallway. This has been used at her birthday party. However, I found that in the full light later on, there was some blue to it as well.

    Agent Cooper would infer from this that a blue Council will be turning green. Or, at the very least, turqoise.

    And so, as I munch upon some cherry pie, I feel certain that Labour claims about regaining Queen’s Park are misplaced. The Greens have a strong team of candidates there.

    But I still think that Billy Wilder, among film makers, holds the key to this Election.

  8. It is, after all, prediction. And how many of us can honestly say we are totally objective. I think we are all looking forward to the drama, (although for those of us who are not standing, perhaps with added nervous edge).
    I think there is much water to go under the bridge nationally, even in the next two months. For me there are two main questions that need to be asked to determine how the vote will go at the time. One is national, one is local:

    How much more unpopular can the coalition become? (Mr Elgood may be taking note of this nervously)
    Do people see the Greens as a serious coalition leader in Brighton? (Now they are getting close to real power)

    Two exciting months to go chaps!

  9. Just to amend the above- ‘although for those of us who are not standing, perhaps with added nervous edge’

    Should read-‘although for those of us who are not standing, perhaps withOUT THE added nervous edge’

    I must check my posts beforehand…

  10. As one of the three Green candidates standing Queen’s Park, I can tell everyone that I and my fellow candidates are ignoring this highly entertaining predictions game being played so earnestly by so many. We and our enthusiastic team of canvassers are simply getting on with the task in hand of knocking on doors and meeting voters – its the only way elections are won. Whether we’ve done enough will be down to the voters in the end, who won’t be influenced by those making predictions.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: