Hanover and Elm Grove – they will weigh not count the Green vote next May

Hangleton and Knoll – a real test for Labour but one it is likely to fail

Hangleton and Knoll epitomised Labour’s decline in 2007 when the Tories performed particularly well with the election of three councillors, Dawn Barnett (2,651 votes), Tony Janio (2,237) and David Smart (2,217).  What is more they saw off veteran Labour councillor, Brian Fitch, who polled 1,820 votes.

Next May, even if the Tories lump in the polls, the three sitting councillors are likely to hold on to their seats as they have proven to be hard-working ward councillors. 

This is a seat that Labour should reclaim if they are to return, once again, to be a force on the City Council.  All indications are, however, that Labour is in terminal decline in traditional working class areas such as Hangleton and Knoll.  Labour has lost the common touch which councillors Barnett, Janio and Smart have in abundance.

The chattering classes might mock the Magnificent Three but they know how to nurse a ward, and the election results are likely to provide yet another harsh lesson for Labour in Hangleton and Knoll.

The Greens are nowhere in this area, so the only choice for non-Conservative voters is a tactical vote for Labour.  With an excellent candidate, Labour may just oust David Smart, but Dawn Barnett and Tony Janio are safe as houses.

Goldsmid Ward – the most interesting seat in Brighton and Hove

Goldsmid is the most fascinating seat in Brighton and Hove, currently a three-way marginal.  In 2007 two Conservatives councillors and one Labour councillor were elected. The now discredited Paul Lainchbury topped the poll with 1,330 votes, fellow Tory Ayas Fallon-Khan second (1,238), while Labour’s Melanie Davis prevented a Tory clean-sweep with 1,231 votes.  The unsuccessful Tory polled 1,189 votes. 

The Greens came a close third, making this the most fiercely contested seat last time.  However, the ordinary state of affairs was blown apart following the resignation of Lainchbury, with the sensational by-election victory by the Green’s Alex Phillips last year, securing the Greens first seat in Hove.

The Greens have momentum in Goldsmid.  Melanie Davis has not set the world on fire, and a question has to be asked whether she will stand again.  The Greens are targeting the seat in 2011.  With more Lib Dem votes likely to go to the Greens, it is likely that the Greens will have a better chance of beating the Tories than Labour.

For this reason, I am encouraging anti-Tory votes to vote tactically for the Greens, although a vote for Melanie Davis (if she stands) and two Greens (particulary Alex Phillips) is not being discouraged.

Don’t let Lib Dems defect to Labour or the Greens

What would you do if you were a Lib Dem councillor in Brighton and Hove?  Faced with a backlash against that party in next May’s local elections, do you rely on your personal vote to see you home even though the tide is very much against your party?

At the last locals, Joyce Edmond-Smith, a long-standing and highly respected Labour councillor in Hanover and Elm Grove, faced the Greens who had momentum on their side.  Joyce was Labour’s foremost green activist, with a better environmental record than many Greens.  She enjoyed a large personal vote, well-deserved and hard-earned over many years, but it wasn’t enough to save her and she was beaten by 624 votes.

David Watkins and Paul Elgood bear no comparison to Joyce when it comes to a personal vote.  Brunswick and Adelaide has a highly transient population and turnout is traditionally low.  Last time turnover was below 28%.  Being a Lib Dem councillor can’t be much fun at the moment.

So what do you do? I think that there is a chance that they will either not stand again so to avoid being beaten, or they may cross the floor and join either Labour or the Greens.  Their applications should be rejected.  If they really find the ConDem coalition distasteful, they should have taken a principled stand at the time.  Any defection now will be opportunistic and self-serving.

East Brighton – an easy call for a tactical vote for Labour

Labour has precious few safe seats in Brighton and Hove, having been put to the sword by the Greens at the last local elections, as well as at the General Election when all three Brighton and Hove parliamentary seats were lost.

East Brighton could be called a safe seat, although the Party would be well advised not to take even this seat for granted.

Labour comfortably held the seat in 2007 with a large majority.  Elected were Gill Mitchel (1,539 votes), Warren Morgan (1,401) and Craig Turton (1,262).  The leading Tory polled exactly 1,000 votes. The Greens came third and the Lib Dems trailed in fourth. It is likely that the Lib Dem votes will be shared between Labour and the Greens, allowing Labour to safely hold the seat and allow the Greens to challenge the Tories for second place.

But for safety sake, I would encourage a tactical vote for Labour.

Tactical voting in Central Hove – difficult one to call

Central Hove is a difficult seat to call.  The seat is currently held by Young and Older councillors, Jan Young (901 votes) and Averil Older (964).  Runners up were the Lib Dems (692 and 667 votes) with the Greens coming in third (420 and 333 votes).

Both Jan and Averil are well known and respected councillors and it is unlikely that they will be shifted.  We can expect the Lib Dem vote to collapse thanks to the ConDem coalition, with their votes spread between Labour and the Greens.  Given that Labour came a poor forth last time (317 and 304 votes), on balance anti-Tory voters should vote tactically for the Greens.

This ward should be a lower priority for the Greens than, say, Brunswick and Adelaide, although they should regard this seat as similar to Preston Park Ward where they have made a breakthrough and should win all three seats in May.  The Greens may not win it this time around, but they should continue putting up candidates who will run this time and again in 2015 and who are prepared to serve as councillors.

Brunswick & Adelaide (Brighton & Hove) – vote tactically for the Greens in May 2011

This is the first of several posts that will look at the each of the wards in Brighton and Hove in preparation for next May’s local election. There will be recommendations for tactical voting, but you can be assured that there will b no recommendation for an anti-Tory tactical vote for the Lib Dems.

Brunswick and Adelaide is the only Lib Dem seat on the Council. The two ward councillors, Paul Elgood and David Watkins, are active councillors in the best Liberal tradition, but the damage caused to all Lib Dems by the ConDem coalition makes this a vulnerable seat.

In 2007, at the last local elections, the result the election of Elgood (942 votes) and Watkins (729).  The Greens were next with 482 and 431 votes, and then the Tories with 368 and 357.  Labour came a poor fourth with 284 and 265 votes.

There is no doubt that Brunswick and Adelaide will be a priority target for the Greens, and Labour supporters should cut their losses and back the Greens.  Should the Lib Dems lose the seat, they will disappear altogether in Brighton and Hove.

Let’s hear it for Jason Kitcat – the victim of a Labour, Lib Dem and Tory stitch-up

Anybody who takes a close interest in the politics within Brighton and Hove City Council (and we are few and far between) will continue to be appalled at the treatment of Cllr Jason Kitcat. He is facing a six month ban from public office unless he apologises for not showing Cllr Geoffrey Theobald “respect”.

His crime? Posting extracts from a Council meeting on You Tube and on his blog when giving Cllr Theobald a hard time over communal bins.  I kid you not.

A complaint was lodged by Tory Cllr Ted Kemble to the Council’s Standard’s Committee.  The Panel which heard the complaint was made up of an independent chair, and Labour councillor Jeane Lepper and Lib Dem councillor David Watkins.  Cllr Kitcat was found guilty and was asked to apologise to Cllr Theobald.  It is not clear whether both councillors voted against Cllr Kitcat.  If they did they should be ashamed of themselves.  In a democracy, the only people who should be able to prevent an elected councillor from representing his constituents are his or her constituents themselves, through the ballot box.

Geoffrey Theobald, to his credit, isn’t in the slightest bit fussed by any of this.  He has been around long enough and has been called worse (probably by me at some point!).

And Jason Kitcat is getting support from some unlikely quarters, not least from the Tory Local Government Minister, Grant Shapps.  You can read a full account of the whole sorry saga on Jason Kitcat’s blog.

Perhaps an appropriate outcome would be defeat at the polls next May for Cllr Kemble and a massive scare for Cllr Lepper (she is too popular in her ward and works too hard for her to lose her seat – and I personally wouldn’t want her to).  As for Cllr Watkins, if he stands again, he should in any case get beaten on the anti-Lib Dem backlash.

And what about Cllr Kitcat.  If he is suspended, there should be such a huge vote next May to re-elect him in Regency Ward.  Ordinary voters don’t like people being victimised, and Jason Kitcat is one of the hardest working councillors in my memory, one of the truly exceptional local ward councillors of our time.

Next May’s local elections will see gains for the Greens and the end of the Lib Dems

“I’m not a Tory” pleaded Nick Clegg  following an onslaught on Mumsnet.  He claims that the Lib Dems and the Tories are “as distinct as we’ve always been”.

Well, Mr Clegg, if it waddles like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be a ….. Lib Dem!  The enthusiasm with which Clegg, David Laws, Danny Alexander et al have embraced the Tory cuts agenda (in spite of pre election statements) makes it hard to differentiate between the Lib Dems and the Tories.

All this is great news for Labour and the Greens.  Both parties should pick up votes from the discredited Lib Dems locally.  They never were much to rite home about, and the defeat of their last two councillors will be one of the high points of the local elections next May. 

So who will benefit most? Probably the Greens.  If the Greens are serious about becoming the largest party next May, the must pick up both Brunswick seats from the Lib Dems. Labour can hope to pick up votes from traditionally anti-Tory Lib Dem who have found the ConDem coalition nauseating.  This could make the difference in Tory/Labour marginals such as Hangleton and Knoll and the two Portslade seats.

As I see it, eight months out, I predict the Greens and the Tories will end neck and neck, with neither having a majority.  Labour, with about twelve seats, will hold the balance of power.  As for the Lib Dems, the will have waddled off to oblivion.

(My apologies to ducks, none of which were hurt in the writing of this post)

The Labour Party has failed young people; the Greens are now failing them

Brighton has had, for several generations, a tradition of resistance.  In the 1930s, when Oswald Mosely’s Black Shirts tried to rally in Brighton, there were fierce street battles, and the fascists were prevented from meeting on The Level.  In the 1960s, with the founding of Sussex University, radical student activity abounded, with sit-ins and demonstrations. In the 1970s there were dozens of left-wing and anarchist groups operating in Brighton, based around the old Resource Centre where the Brighthelm Centre now stands.  Punk, New Wave, and Ska music vied with the politics of fascist groups. Feminist and separatist women’s politics was flourishing.

The arrival of the Thatcher government in 1979, and with it mass unemployment, saw Right to Work marches, the People’s March for Jobs, and more fascist activity.  The National Front was active locally, with many of its national leaders living locally. The Anti-Nazi League attracted lots of support from students and young activists, although not from the Militant-dominated Labour Party Young Socialists who supported the less militant Committee Against Fascism.  Militant and the LPYS didn’t support the opposition to the Falklands War, but hundreds of young people did march against the war.  This growing activism created momentum that led to Labour’s assault on the Tories 130 year control on Brighton Council.  Hundreds of young activists had joined the Party and led by David Lepper and Steve Bassam, Labour took control of the Council in 1986 for the first time ever.

The Poll Tax created further momentum and support for the Party peaked in 1990.  But within two years all was lost when the Brighton Labour Party was closed down as part of Kinnock’s witch hunt against Militant.  The Party has never properly recovered and young activists today are few and far between.  The anarchist and fringe left groups have gone.  Small, marginalised groups have emerged, but they are characterised by sectarianism and an inability to organise and mobilise.  Some young people have maintained their political awareness, but mainly in single-issue campaigning.  More often than not, they have become disillusioned and disengaged.  And who can blame them.

The Labour Party in government betrayed the heritage that brought advantage to many of its leaders by introducing tuition fees and saddling generations of graduates with years and years of debt.  Housing is a major concern and so too are job prospects.  The Greens, who should be in a position to harness the anger, aspirations and idealism of young people, are showing themselves to be poor organisers and somewhat elitist, in spite of the success of Caroline Lucas.  A question the Greens must answer is: why are talented young activists like Tom French in the Labour Party and not part of the next chapter of the Green’s march forward in Brighton?

The Labour Party has failed young people, the Greens are failing to capitalise.  What a failure by both.