Something very interesting is happening with support growing for Labour

Comments made by colleagues over the days since the Great Leaders’ Debate tells me that something very interesting is happening. There is little warmth for David Cameron. In fact, there seems to be a tide of hostility towards him.  In a wholly un-scientific poll taken in a rather haphazard way amongst a group of (mainly female) colleagues, the one colleague who had declared she would vote Conservative (in Hove) has been charmed by Gordon Brown.  She did not think he was dynamic in the debate, but said she isn’t looking for that in a Prime Minister.  She felt Nick Clegg had won the debate but she credits Brown for tackling the recession.  This from someone who two months ago said she would vote Conservative because it was time for a change!

Others have said that Clegg impressed most but all said they had warmed to Brown and were intending to vote Labour unless they were in Brighton Pavilion where there was a debate about the Greens.  There was a sense amongst a couple who felt more secure in voting Green if the Tory lead has been cut.  (A strange logic, but more evidence that the momentum remains with Caroline Lucas).

So, good news for Labour.  It is lovely to see the Conservative poll position in free fall.  Much can yet change, but what is certain, all predictions from a week ago must be reconsidered, other than a Green vote in Brighton Pavilion.

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4 Responses

  1. I’ve been very careful not to call the election Brighton Pavilion for Labour because it’s definitely very close and it’s for the voters to decide.

    But I have been very heartened by what I’m hearing on the doorstep. Responses to Brown on Friday were surprisingly warm. The national picture remains vital for local voters and that’s Cameron and the conservatives ar a concern for many.

    Turnout is going to be very important. We know the Greens can succeed in local and EU elections with low turnouts. What if we have a high turnout at a national election that’s close? It will be interesting to see.

  2. Our treasured ICM poll giving us an 8 point lead only included those people who said they were intending to vote.

    Do we have evidence that turnout is likely to be high this time? I thought the expenses scandal and resulting disillusionment had put paid to that.

    In Brighton both Tories and Greens have enthusiastic supporters of all ages, while the dedicated Labour voters are mainly over a certain age, yet still dependable. Disappointed Labour voters remain the largest contingent, many have already switched their vote and the safe prospect of a Lib-Lab coalition nationally may make the remainder feel they don’t need to bother voting anyway.

  3. Nick Clegg has more or less promised to side with Cameron on more than one occasion so please nobody be fooled by the ludicrous notion that there is going to be a Lib-Lab coalition.

    GE turnout will be higher than local and EU because it always is. The negatives of expenses will be counter balanced by how close the election is. So all to play for in Brighton Pavilion.

  4. What is all this about a “reconsideration”?

    I remarked here a few weeks ago that Labour could well keep Kemp Town and Hove.

    The other factor is the half-hearted Tory vote switching to the LibDems.

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