Let’s face it – the Tories won’t win Brighton Pavilion and the Greens will triumph

Without wishing to by-pass the electorate, the Conservatives will not win Brighton Pavilion. Every indication points to a Green victory.

The constituency is not even in the top 100 target seats (it is number 135), and the only reason why the great and the good of the party will be seen with Charlotte Vere (apart from her being personable) is that the constituency is wedged between Hove (target number 8) and Brighton Kemptown (number 29).

If the Tories win 39% of the vote (the highest percentage predicted in any current poll) they will gain 93 seats leaving them 35 short of an overall majority.

And in this scenario, the Green’s Caroline Lucas wins Brighton Pavilion.  Ladbrokes has made predictions regarding the outcome of the election.  They have Caroline Lucas being elected as the only Green MP.  On a more depresing note, Ladbrokes have the Tories winning with a majority of 4.

Ladbrokes are now offering odds of 5/6 on Ms Lucas winning, 2/1 on Ms Vere winning, and 3/1 on Nancy Platts winning.  The Lib Dems are 100/1 and UKIP 200/1, both of which appear to be pretty unfavourable odds for the punter!

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2 Responses

  1. I would still urge people to help, elections are won by canvassing and leafletting, I have been down a few times.

  2. I am surprised that the Tories should have Kemp Town so high on their list.

    This evening I went along to a very interesting meeting, organised by the World Wildlife Fund and others. This was at the Friends’ Meeting House, and the panel comprised candidates for the Kemp Town seat. However, the Tory, Simon Kirby, did not attend, nor did he send along somebody in his place. And, as Simon Burgess pointed out, the Tories have the climate at the very bottom of their official list of concerns.

    Although the Ukip fellow had mostly outlandish views, he presented them in a modest manner, and did point to some interesting examples. If he is canvassing, and encounters people of his leanings, then he could be taking votes off the Tories. And at least he turned up to a meeting where he knew he would be out of kilter with the others. As did Charlotte Vere at Sussex University.

    As at the meeting organised last week by Riba, Simon Burgess was at some odds with Labour Party policies, as on nuclear power, and, when others said this to him, he stood by it and said that he would go against the whip in Parliament. As Ben Duncan remarked afterwards, it will be very interesting if Simon Burgess gets in and it is a hung Parliament in which such issues come up.

    I continue to think that Simon Burgess can win Kemp Town, but the Greens and LibDems are coming across well there and the vote could fracture. All eyes are on Pavilion, of course, but Kemp Town and Hove are as fascinating.

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