35 days to go: Tories to win Hove, the Greens Brighton Pavilion, Lib Dems Lewes, and Brighton Kemptown too close to call

Just 35 days and it will almost be over. Yes, just 5 weeks and an hour or so and the polls will have closed.  The final ‘knockin up’ will have been completed and there will be nothing more to be done but to wait for the count.

At 10pm the BBC, ITV and Sky will give their prediction of the national result. My personal forecast is that there will be a hung parliament, and I am prepared to go out on a limb to say Labour will be the largest party.

The wheels are beginning to come off the Tory’s campaign, and George Osbourne contin ues to underwhelm. The Tory toff label will dog ‘David Dave’ Cameron.

Stormin’ Norman Baker will hold Lewes, the Tories will win Hove, the Greens Brighton Pavilion, but Brighton Kemptown is too close to call.  In that constituency both candidates (Labour and Tory) have been lacklustre and disappointing.

Brighton Pavilion remains the most exciting, inspiring contest, and I remain impressed by Caroline Lucas and Nancy Platts in particular.  Charlotte Vere, who contrary to many comments on this blog, has many positive personal qualities.  I have enjoyed meeting her but feel that she has been disadvantaged by not having a quality campaign manager to guide her. Her focus has been too much on her opponents and not enough on herself.  Not that I sad about that.  Caroline Lucas will be an excellent Member of Parliament.

Finally, I am grateful to Mike for providing this link to an article on the campaign in Brighton Pavilion that appeared in the Economist http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15821483

2 Responses

  1. The BPB underestimates Celia Barlow in Hove. She has been about a good deal the past few years. I am not hearing any great enthusiasm for the Tories but people do mention her. The LibDem vote in Hove could be the key factor.

    Yes, a hung Parliament is probable. It looks, then, as if the votes in general will bring The Night of the Long ReCounts. And, as dawn breaks, I reckon, Labour for Kemp Town; Greens, Pavilion; and perhaps still counting for Hove, with Celia Barlow ahead.

  2. The Greens shouldn’t stand a candidate in Hove.

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