The Tories are losing the election and the plot; Labour could yet win the election!

With the publication of every opinion poll, the chances of a Conservative victory in May become more remote.  Tonight’s ICM poll for the Guardian puts the Tories on 37% (down 3%), Labour on 30% (up 1%) and the Lib Dems on 20% (down 1%).

It appears that any immediate harm caused by Bullygate has been off-set by the Piers Morgan effect. And there is a sense that people are feeling that the alleged bully is, in fact, the bullied.

It now looks that we are heading for a hung parliament.  That’s not great for the economy, but better than having Chancellor George Osborne.

What is most fascinating about this poll are the underlying trends. The Tories have also lost ground on key policy issues, not least the economy, and also appear to be losing their campaign against Labour’s so-called death tax. Labour leads the Tories by eight points as the party with the best policy on care for the elderly.

The negative campaigning of the Tories is proving to be counter-productive. 

The possibility of Labour win in May should not be ruled out. It was always likely that, when faced with entrusting Cameron and Osborne with their financial future and that of the country, the voters would lose confidence, prefering to go with Brown and Darling.  Cameron and Osborne look lightweight by comparison.  They really don’t have it.

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11 Responses

  1. I truly hope the Tories don’t win the general.

  2. A hung parliament is not great on a lot of levels but it might focus some minds on electoral reform. A silver lining, perhaps?

    But as the result is likely to be close, every Labour MP will count in the tally to keep out the Tories. It’s proving a powerful argument on the doorstep. “If we have a Labour government, a Green MP might well be a nice thing to have. But is it worth risking a Tory government for?”

    Brighton Pavilion is a tight three way marginal. Everything to play for!

  3. Hi Dan,

    I’ve found an even more powerful argument on the doorstep is this: “A Labour or Tory MP is not going to make all the difference. Given the choice between George Osborne’s guillotine or Gordon Brown’s painfully, slow and brutal knife in the stomach, would you ever want either one?”

    I think voters are much more convinced when we look at the reality of what will be in the Labour manifesto, not what the tiny Labour left would like to see in there.

  4. Luke,

    I’m glad to see a Green activist admitting that Caroline Lucas’s party has eschewed positive campaigning and indulges in a bit of scare-mongering and negativity on the side, in the relative privacy of the doorstep.

    It’s a useful example. :o)

    Cheers,

    Dan

  5. My smiley went odd: 🙂

  6. I have thought for some time a hung Parliament likely. Extrrapolating from the Brighton and Hove situation.

    And the Tories revealed that they remain the Nasty Party when their “culture” councillor David Smith thought it a good idea to “answer” my Public Question about music libraries by declaring that he wished he could challenge me to a duel. And that was after he had sent a disgusting letter to the Argus for which he has since been upbraided by the Council’s monitoring officer.

    It is clear to me that the arts would be among those things to receive scant attention under a Tory government. Not, of course, that libraries have bloomed under Labour, which has reduced stocks by twenty per cent. The Jubilee library is widely seen as lamentable. Which is certainly not the fault of the library staff but the misguded bureaucratic priorities.

    A hung Parliament would make for a welcome breathing space, a chance for real debate.

    Brighton Pavilion is perhaps one of the most interesting constituencies in the country. Apart, of course, from the question nobody is asking: will Gordon Brown keep his seat?

  7. Negative campaigning?

    I thought that was Labour policy? Are cuts not to feature in the Labour manifesto?

    Please tell me what will be in there. Nationalisation of our railways? A commitment to keeping open local post offices? No cuts in public services?

    I would be delighted if you could tell me, Dan.

    Thanks,

    Luke

  8. I seem to remember the Greens starting a rather aggressive facebook campaign against Charlotte Vere as a result of her bringing to the attention of her Twitter followers an article that compared the Green policies with those of the BNP.

    I forget, did this group also feature an image of her with a ‘dunce’ cap labelled a ‘fool’?

  9. Alexander (are you still a Lib Dem by the way?),

    That group was not connected in any way to the campaign in Brighton. Just like in all political parties, the Greens have some over-enthusiastic members who were very keen on defending the party against what was a terrible error in judgement from Ms. Vere and her campaign team.

    I am sure that Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and every other party has similar campaign groups which were created by over-zealous party members. Does this reflect badly on their leaderships or campaigns in general? No, I don’t think it does.

    Politics is extremely emotive, it can provoke the most admired emotions but also some of the ugliest. This has been particularly evident this week in regards to revelations of Mr. Brown’s so-called ‘bullying.’

    Best wishes,

    Luke

    • If you believe that creating insulting pictures or attacking someone on the basis of their character is far more important than policy, then yes, I do agree – politics can indeed descend into a very emotive business. However, I don’t take the view that politics ought to be “emotive” – it should be about presenting the different choices and the electorate arriving at a considered judgement.

      I won’t suggest that you’re attempting to be emotive, pal, but I’m not quite sure how me being a Lib Dem relates to anything at all. For the record, I recovered from the one folly of my otherwise immaculate youth in a matter of months when I came to realise how anti-Semitic and illiberal some of these “others” parties can be; and I revoked my membership without hesitation because party membership has never been a religious exercise to me.

      I do hope this has satisfied your burning desire to know everything about me.

      Lots of eco-alarmist hugs,

      Alex
      xx

  10. Hi Alex,

    Thanks for clearing that up, I’m always interested when people have chameleon tendencies.

    I know of several anti-Semitic parties and they all either have ‘British’ or ‘Nationalist’ or something to that effect in their namesakes.

    I never said politics ‘ought’ to be emotive, I was just saying it is. Of course, politics is about policies, vision and everything else we associate with it but, it is also about passion and service. It would be very dull if we didn’t have passion in our politics.

    Many thanks,

    Luke

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