Predicting Green gains in Preston Park and Hollingdean & Stanmer in May’s local elections

Yesterday Luke Walter made some really interesting observations about changing demographics in areas outside the town centre (see yesterday’s post).  He noted that Green supporters from the town centre wards are moving to more outlying areas which could result in electoral gains for the Greens in areas such as Hollingdean and Stanmer.  (For the record, Luke is standing in Hollingdean and Stanmer for the Greens). 

As you would expect, Labour activists have responded.  Dan Wilson, the thoughtful Labour candidate in Regency ward has written: “I don’t disagree with Luke’s view of how Brighton and Hove is changing. But I would note that his critique of change relies on Labour being in govt. I think a coalition at Westminster combined with a Tory council locally is a salient difference on the doorstep in 2011. It’s a precarious situation out there. Clear anti-Tory sentiment, I sense a lack of clarity of where the Liberal support will land, massive numbers of Green/Labour switchers. And who knows what they will do. Good canvassing for us lately but proving hard to crystallise the Labour vote as ever but it is so different from a year ago and the run up to the General Election. I am quite surprised the Greens aren’t doing more to protect their flank.”

My prediction is that the Green vote in Brighton Pavilion will harden, resulting in comfortable Green wins in St Peters and North Laine, Hanover and Elm Grove, and Regency.  I also think that the Greens will pick up at least one extra seat in Preston Park in addition to the one already held by Amy Kennedy.

Hollingdean and Stanmer is harder to predict, but in each election where a party has momentum unexpected results are achieved (as with Amy Kennedy in Preston Park last time). I suspect that H&S will be the ‘breakthrough ward’ for the Greens this time, defeating established Labour councillors.  I have previously said that ousting Labour’s Jeane Lepper is the big ask, and I doubt whether all the factors are there for this to happen.  She will survive because of Labour’s relative strengthening in the polls but more importantly (and this is why I single her out) her reputation in the ward which others underestimate. I think H&S result will go 2 Green and Jeane Lepper.

The Greens may well strengthen their position in Patcham and even Westdene, but I doubt whether they will run the sitting Tories even close.

So in Brighton Pavilion, my prediction is the Greens returning 12 councillors, the Tories 6 and Labour 2.

• Hanover and Elm Grove: 3 Greens
• Hollingean and Stanmer: 2 Greens and 1 Labour
• Patcham: 3 Conservatives
• Preston Park: 2 Greens and 1 Labour
• Regency: 2 Greens
• St Peters and North Laine: 3 Greens
• Westdene: 3 Conservatives

In the next couple of days I will share my predictions for Hove and Brighton Kemptown (including a sensational prediction for Rottingdean Coastal!).

Why the Greens should not be complacent in Brighton and Hove

In recent posts I have offered comradely advice to Labour about what it needs to do to re-establish itself locally.  In this post I offer some advice to the Greens (also comradely, but I’m not sure whether Greens use such language!).

I expect the Greens to do well next May.  In September last year I did a review of how I saw things going in each ward, the key wards between Labour and the Greens being Regency, Preston Park, and Queen’s Park.  The Greens are optimistic about Hollingdean and Stanmer, although I think that it might win one, possibly two seats, but certainly not all three.

The danger for the Greens in approaching thses local elections is complacency.  They underestimate Party loyalty and personal votes at their peril.  In Hollingdean and Stanmer, the Greens have made Jeane Lepper into something of a hate figure.  She clearly has got up the noses of Green councillors, but she has a substantial personal vote.  Performance in the Council Chamber and years of case work on the estates are very different things.  To a lesser extent, Pat Hawkes has something of a personal vote but nothing to match that of Jeane Lepper.

To their credit, the Greens are replicating its successful formula from the general election campaign.  The day of action on Saturday demonstrates what the Greens are capable of.  If local organisers can convince Green activists from across the south, London and beyond that a day trip to Brighton and Hove will help them gain control of the City Council.

In the three key wards, the Greens certainly don’t have it wrapped up.  The Labour candidates in Queen’s Park are keen, energetic and very active. But so too are the Greens (I almost described the candidates as ‘young’, keen, etc. until I remembered that the Sussex Square, the ever youthful Geoffrey Bowden, is standing!).  More than half of the Greens sitting councillors are defending their seats, either standing down or in the case of Sven Rufus, moving wards from Regency to Hollingdean and Stanmer.  The Greens will lose the advantage of the individual personal votes. 

Labour have been wise not to field several of the former councillors defeated last time, although several of their less impressive councillors are standing again, which makes areas such as Moulsecoomb and Bevendean vulnerable to a Tory clean sweep, something that should really be unthinkable.

Having given comradely advice to Labour, my comradely advice to the Greens is to avoid complacency.  Build your base (not your greatest strength) and recruit, recruit, recruit. Don’t underestimate loyalty votes, and chase each and every vote.  The results in several wards will be close.