Con Dem Nation will see the Lib Dems wiped out in Brighton and Hove

I have been cut off in Outer Patagonia for the last 12 days.  No news, no internet, nothing.  On the way back someone told me this ludicrous joke that Nick Clegg had done a deal with Cameron to creat a Con Dem Nation, that Uncle Vince Cable was in government proposing the sale of 49% of the Royal Mail, that Norman Baker had gon into government with the Tories, and that David Miliband was standing for the leadership of the Labour Party!

Actually, I hve found the last 12 days quite depressing.  But there is one silver lining on the cloud, and I have recognised a terrible mistake I made in the run up to the election.  It all has to do with the Lib Dems. 

This blog advocated tactical voting to kep the Tories out.  In Eastbourne and Lewes I said that a Lib Dem vote was important to keep David Cameron out of Downing Street.  I was wrong.

Next election my advice to voters in Eastbourne and Lewes will be ‘Vote Tory’. I would rather have the real thing than a poor yellow imitation that lends repectability to the Tories.

Clegg is the most rightwing Lib Dem leader in several gereations, cut from the same cloth as Cameron.  It is no surprise that they make such good bed fellows.  But Norman Baker, how could you ….. ?

As for the silver lining, the Lib Dems will see their support from left of centre voters collapse.  In Brighton and Hove this is good news for the Greens who can now be even more optimistic about picking up two seats from the Lib Dems in Brunswick next May.

Let’s face it – the Tories won’t win Brighton Pavilion and the Greens will triumph

Without wishing to by-pass the electorate, the Conservatives will not win Brighton Pavilion. Every indication points to a Green victory.

The constituency is not even in the top 100 target seats (it is number 135), and the only reason why the great and the good of the party will be seen with Charlotte Vere (apart from her being personable) is that the constituency is wedged between Hove (target number 8) and Brighton Kemptown (number 29).

If the Tories win 39% of the vote (the highest percentage predicted in any current poll) they will gain 93 seats leaving them 35 short of an overall majority.

And in this scenario, the Green’s Caroline Lucas wins Brighton Pavilion.  Ladbrokes has made predictions regarding the outcome of the election.  They have Caroline Lucas being elected as the only Green MP.  On a more depresing note, Ladbrokes have the Tories winning with a majority of 4.

Ladbrokes are now offering odds of 5/6 on Ms Lucas winning, 2/1 on Ms Vere winning, and 3/1 on Nancy Platts winning.  The Lib Dems are 100/1 and UKIP 200/1, both of which appear to be pretty unfavourable odds for the punter!

David Cameron is right – we DO deserve better, but it is certainly not him

Gordon has kissed hands with the Queen and the campaign is up and running.  “Britain deserves better” says David Cameron.  That is true, but we aren’t going to get it from HIM.  Here is what I hope we will wake up to on May 7^th.

I really don’t want to see a Conservative government elected.  The UKIP candidate in Hove recently accused me of not being open-minded.  Guilty as charged.  I have little if any confidence in the ability of George Osbourne to manage the economy.  The Conservative Party may pretend to have reformed itself, but it is instinctively a party that cuts public expenditure and public services.  It continues to claim to be a party of small government.

Be clear, a vote for the Conservatives will mean savage cuts and even greater support for big business than even Labour will deliver.

I hope Labour ends up with the most seats but not an overall majority, not because it deserves a further term, but because it is the lesser of two evils.  Labour will cut, but some of the excesses that can be expected from the Tories may be tempered, especially if Labour forms a minority government.. 

While hung parliaments are not a great thing generally, I hope that the new parliament will have more independents and minority parties upon whom Labour will need to depend to get its programme through.  This would mean that the Whips will have less influence.

Amongst the minor parties I hope and expect that the Greens will win their first seat, Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavilion.  I also hope that there will be further successes for the Greens, but my lack of knowledge about campaigns elsewhere requires me to remain silent on those campaigns.

Locally, I hope Stormin’ Norman Baker holds Lewes (likely), Labour holds Hove and Brighton Kemptown (both unlikely), and Michael Foster holds Hastings and Rye (very possible).

I remain an admirer of Nancy Platts and would wish to see her in Parliament – perhaps she could beat the sitting Tory MP for Brighton Kemptown in the next general election …. in October.

Labour’s lacklustre performance in Hove and Kemptown could cost it dear

Christopher Hawtree accuses me of underestimating Celia Barlow in Hove after I predicted a Tory win. He writes “She has been about a good deal the past few years. I am not hearing any great enthusiasm for the Tories but people do mention her. The LibDem vote in Hove could be the key factor”.

I sincerely hope that I am wrong and that Celia triumphs once again. I agree she has been a good constituency MP but the size of her majority means that the slightest swing against Labour will see her defeated.

Christopher is also right to say that the Lib Dems could be the key factor.  It would not be the first time that a no-hope campaign by the Lib Dems lets the Tories in.  This is why this blog has consistently called for tactical voting in Hove for Celia Barlow and the Labour Party.

Unfortunately the Labour campaign in Hove is weak.  Celia, for all her hard work, has not galvanised her supportrs (unlike Nancy Platts in Brighton Pavilion who has a bunch of eager supporters willing to turn out in all weathers – even today!).

A Labour defeat in Brighton Pavilion will be in spite of Nancy Platts and her campaign, not because of it.

I had lunch with a Labour activist in Hove the other day.  He decided some time ago to work for Simon Burgess in Brighton Kemptown rather than in Hove.  But that campaign itself has failed to ignite the imagination and he has done little at the very time that all hands are needed in Kemptown.

So I stand by my prediction that the Tories will win Hove, not becaue they deserve to but because of the failure of Labour in that constituency.

Unless Labour gets its act together in Brighton and Hove, the City Council elections next year could be a straight fight between the Tories and the Greens.

Cameron’s inability to articulate clear policies is eroding confidence in his ability to be Prime Minister

Am I alone in cringing every time David Cameron avoids giving clear and direct responses to clear and direct questions?  He says he opposes various Labour proposals and then, when pressed, will not say what a Tory government will do?  On the Andrew Marr programme this morning, for example, he said the Tories opposed Labour’s plans for VAT, but would not commit to reversing them.  Why can’t he just come out and say precisely what the Conservatives will do?

The reason is is that his policy base is shallow and the cuts planned are so severe.  When pressed on a specific policy, at this early stage in the general election campaign, he is crackingd. Last week he said the Tories would definitely introduce tax credits, then he said they wouldn’t, then he said they would, then he said he definitely would.  What was his excuse for his muddled mind?  That he does loads of interviews, and during that interview he was thinking about other things.  Oops.  This is the person who wants to be PM, and he can’t even get a flagship policy right.

I enjoyed the message on one of his defaced posters: “You can airbrush your posters, but you can’t airbrush your policies”.  As the election campaign moves forward, Cameron’s refusal to be specific about his policies will erode confidence in his ability to be Prime Minister.

Tactical Voting: It MUST be Green in Brighton Pavilion

It is suddenly becoming much clearer.  An ICM poll puts the Greens 8 points ahead of the Conservatives and a full 10 points ahead of Labour in Brighton Pavilion.  However, the most significant aspect of this poll is that two thirds of Labour and Lib Dem voters would be willing to vote Green if it would result in the Tories being kept out.

The telephone poll of 533 voters adjusted to match the local electorate’s profile was undertaken by ICM Research’s Government and Social Unit between 16 – 21 December 2009.

This blog has for some months wavered between support for the impressive Nancy Platts (Labour) and the rather too distant Caroline Lucas (Green).  However, I have been consistent in saying that Nancy’s greatest challenge is the Party she is representing, the “right candidate standing for the wrong party”.  The other problem she is facing is that it is Brighton Pavilion is the Greens number one target.

The Greens now have a head of steam which should allow them to have a clear run-in against Charlotte Vere, playing on the goodwill of Labour and Lib Dem supporters, to harness a substantial vote against the Tories.  Labour supporters are very unlikely to vote Tory to keep the Greens out, some will, for honourable reasons, remain loyal to their party and to Nancy Platts.  The Greens need to nurture the green/left/anti-Tory vote.  It is likely that Caroline Lucas can now look forward to a substantial victory at the General Election. 

If the situation was reversed, with Labour having a ten point lead over the Greens in Brighton Pavilion, it is not likely that two thirds of Green voters would consider voting Labour.  That is both a strength and a weakness of the Greens – able to attract wider support, but ultimately not a party of the left (although New Labour has tried to ensure that it is not seen as being of the left).

This blog, having sat on the fence for so long, calls for unreserved tactical voting in Brighton Pavilion for the Green Party.

A final word for Nancy.  You don’t deserve this.  You are an impressive candidate and individual. You have been let down by your Party and by events. I hope that you will find another seat in due course since you will make an excellent Member of Parliament, but it won’t be ion Brighton Pavilion.

Desperation from class conscious David Cameron: Appeal to Lib Dems is “vacuous spin” that fools nobody

How must you feel if you are an honest, long standing Liberal Democrat?  David Cameron has urged the Liberal Democrats to focus on the similarities between their two parties, that there was a “lot less disagreement than there used to be” between his party and the Lib Dems and that he doesn’t think that ”we should invent differences where there aren’t differences”.

If this is part of a co-ordinated plan nobody has told Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg’s chief of staff Danny Alexander who told the BBC that, “This kind of vacuous spin is fooling nobody. David Cameron seems to be confused about what a fairer Britain means.  For the Liberal Democrats it means cutting taxes for the lowest-paid, for him it means cutting them for millionaires.  ….. the Conservatives cannot be trusted where fairness is concerned.”

If this has not been co-ordinated, it is a sign of desperation from the Tory leader. His poll numbers remain soft and his lead is eroding while, in today’s Observer, it is reported that Labour’s vote is hardening.

There was a great article by John Harris in the Guardian on 8th December  that said “It was all looking so good for the Tories: an assured leader taunting a government in tatters. But recently, criticisms of David Cameron’s background and his party’s inconsistency have hit home.  Now the prospect of a Conservative landslide seems to have disappeared”.

The real Achilles Heel for the Tories is class. They are embarrassed by Cameron’s background, of the double-barreled surnames, the nom-doms.  Ipsos MORI’s Ben Page says that Cameron’s background is an issue, that ordinary people believe that he cannot be “in touch” with them and that he cannot know about their lives.

In Brighton Pavilion class will be an issue. Chuck Vere, in spite of my attempts to educate her on Brighton bus routes, will be seen as a London-based Tory, not in touch with issues facing ordinary people in Brighton. Caroline Lucas, while addressing the distance that some perceive she has from ordinary community issues locally, is torn between Brussels and Brighton, a factor that singularly undermines her electability locally.  Nancy Platts wins hands down on these issues, but remains seriously disadvantaged by being the Labour candidate. Any one of these impressive women would make an excellent MP, but each has to overcome these burdens if they are to cross the winning line in front of the other two.

Tories Declare War on Greens

It had gone also very quiet. It seemed as though all local politicians had gone away on holiday. Until now.

In what is clearly the opening salvo an all-out battle between the Conservatives and the Greens on Brighton and Hove City Council (there is no sign of Labour after the Goldsmid victory for the Greens), Cllr Dawn Barnett has attacked Green councillor Ben Duncan, the Green’s candidate for Brighton Kemp Town at the general election, for entries on his blog. She has picked on the Smash EDO March in the City on May 4.

She is quoted as saying, “A Green party councillor was using his blog to advertise the protest. Is this really how our elected representatives should be behaving? That the police were forced to use this amount of local taxpayers money in order to protect the city’s residents and visitors from the demonstrators is nothing short of disgraceful. I am all for freedom of speech and the right to peaceful protest but the physical damage at these events and the disruption to the lives of residents and visitors is simply not acceptable”.

So the Tories believe in qualified right to protest, and are now trying to say what someone can say on his orher blog. A slippery slope, me thinks,

I support Ben Duncan who has said, “Maintaining a blog is an essential part of what I do as a councillor to let people know what is going on. I was delighted by Sussex Police’s approach to policing the protests which meant we didn’t have any major trouble”.

Beware Greens, the Tories will stop at nothing, truth or lies, to try to undermine your ever increasing support base in Brighton and Hove. Come to think of it, Labour will probably do likewise.

Labour Councillors to defect in Brighton and Hove?

We are entering the silly season where we can expect to see defections from one party to another. There is speculation that, in Brighton and Hove, the next year may see some party switches. Already in the last week we have seen former Labour councillor, Vince Meehan, come out in favour of the Greens in their successful campaign in Goldsmid ward.

Previously, in the run-up to a general election, the former Conservative leader of Hove Borough Council, Bernie Jordan, switched his allegiance to the Labour Party. He said that New Labour represented his values and policies!

At a national level, those wishing to prolong their ministerial careers, such as Shaun Woodward and Quentin Davies, both extremely wealthy and neither coming from traditional Labour backgrounds, crossed the floor and were suitably rewarded. Woodward is now Secretary of State, Northern Ireland Office, and Davies is Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Ministry of Defence !

So what can we expect in Brighton and Hove? There are Labour members who will be, I can say are, questioning whether their careers will be best served remaining in Labour. It would come as no surprise to me to see at least one Labour councillor joining the Greens (not immediately) and one even joining the Conservatives (in the immediate run-up to the General election). Joining the Greens is understandable as they are a more radical party than Labour. One could even see justification for joining the Conservatives given how right wing Labour has become.

Goldsmid Result Changes Brighton & Hove Political Landscape

The obvious impact of the Green victory in Goldsmid Ward is the loss of overall control on Brighton and Hove City Council. For the Greens it provided their first ever Councillor in Hove and the first time the Party has won a seat off the Conservatives. Neil Harding provides a good summary of the impact of the result on the City Council.

In the longer term it provides huge momentum for the Greens in the twelve months before the General Election. For Labour it is a disaster. It reaffirms that Labour is a party in decline in Brighton and Hove, now firmly established as the third party in the City. They lack credibility, a party associated with defeat after defeat, heading for three losses in the City in the General Election. Ironically, it isn’t a disaster for the Conservatives who had a credible result even though they lost their seat in a by-election caused by the unacceptable actions of their former councillor, Paul Lainchbury. Unlike Labour, they were not humilated.

This was the worst result possible for Labour. Labour Group Leader, Gill Mitchell said last night “The Conservatives are fatally wounded and they will not be able to get anything through the council”. To describe the Tories as fatally wounded is pure nonsense and demonstrates the mindset of Labour, still seeing the battle lines as Labour v Conservatives.

There is anger at both parties, but most particularly against the party of government. Mary Mears, a most perceptive politician, has already identified the Greens as the main opponents to the Tories. She dismissed the result as a protest vote on national issues but was quick to attack Green policies, saying that they have not properly costed their programme. That is, indeed a challenge for the Greens.

But for today, the Greens, and Councillor Alex Phillips in particular, should enjoy the moment. If the Green Party is to make the next breakthrough at parliamentary level, the hard work begins tomorrow!