This evening I take a look at the Council seats up for election in the Brighton Kemptown constituency. This is far less exciting than several of the seats in Brighton Pavilion. The Conservatives will retain all three seats in Rottingdean Coastal. Even with the Green Tide of Progress described by Luke Walter, where Green voters move from town centre wards such as Queens Park, Regency and St Peters & North Laine to outlying, the Greens (and Labour) will fail to win this seat by a country mile.
Neighbouring East Brighton will remain solid Labour. Even in a bad year for Labour (and this is not one of them) East Brighton should remain Labour. With Warren Morgan, Gill Mitchell and Craig Turton, Labour has a strong and active team.
Woodingdean’s two seats will be retained by Conservatives Dee Simpson and Geoff Wells. Dee is a hard-working champion of the ward while Geoff Wells is a likeable if somewhat ‘unconventional’ Mayor.
That leaves Queens Park and Moulsecoomb & Bevendean. Labour faces tough battles in both, in Queens Park from the Greens who hold all three seats, in Moulsecoomb and Bevendean from the Tories who will be seeking to increase their single seat (that of the highly respected Maria Caulfield). Queens Park is probably too close to call at present, with an energetic campaign being run by the Labour team. Chris Cooke is most likely to take a seat from the Greens, but the Green councillors (two of whom are standing down) have gained a huge reputation for hard work and community focus. If I had to make a prediction (and you know how I shy away from saying anything definitive …. ) I would predict two Greens and one Labour councillors returned from Queens Park. But then again, it could be three Greens, or perhaps two Labour and a Green, and there again it could be three Labour … What an interesting contest!
But it is Moulsecoomb and Bevendean that will be a headline result in May. I predict that the reputation of Maria Caulfield, one of the most popular ward councillors that I have ever observed, will bring through her two Tory running mates, seeing two gains for the Conservatives with Maria holding her seat with a substantial majority. What a state of affairs for Labour! Nobby Clarke and Dennis Hobden will be spinning in their graves (or in Dennis’ case, whatever afterlife he has moved on to!).
So, from Brighton Kemptown there will be 8 Conservatives, between 3 and 6 Labour councillors, and up to three Greens.
Filed under: Council Elections 2011 | Tagged: Bevendean, Brighton, Chris Cooke, Craig Turton, Dee Simpson, Dennis Hobden, East Brighton, Geoff Wells, Gill Mitchell, Kemptown, Luke Walter, Maria Caulfield, Moulsecoomb, Nobby Clarke, North Laine, Pavilion, Queens Park, Regency, Rottingdean Coastal, St Peter's, Warren Morgan, Woodingdean | 13 Comments »