We’ll weather the weather whatever the weather whether we like it or not

A heavy storm descended over Brighton and Hove earlier this evening. I was returning home from a dinner at the Lodge in honour of the Royal Couple when I was soaked through to the skin by a terrible down pour. We can all be grateful that the Fairy Tale marriage was blessed by wonderful sunshine.

But it made me think of Thursday and the impact the weather might have on the result. Rain all day will produce a very low turnout, and all bets are off as to who will win overall. In areas such as Patcham, with the organisation and resources of the Theobalds, any Green challenge will fail hopelessly. In a ward such as Regency, with all polling stations in close proximity to where voters live, the weather will have less of an impact and would impact equally on Labour and Green turnout.

But rain during the day, clearing up and becoming sunny around 6pm will favour Labour and the Greens. The Tories, traditionally, get their core vote out during the day. Heavy rain will frustrate their efforts and would make some of the secondary challenges by Labour and the Greens more effective. It could make Hove as a whole very unpredictable. Take Westbourne, Wish, Central Hove, North Portslade, South Portslade, and Hangleton and Knoll wards, all Tory candidates will be hoping (and in the case of Bishop Brian Oxley, praying) that it won’t rain on Thursday.

By contrast, rain in the early evening could well see the return of a Tory controlled Council. Labour and the Greens will struggle to get its vote out and the Tories will retain all its seats in Hove, and pick up a couple in Moulsecoomb and Bevendean. It could also make gains in the west of Hove.

Glorious sunshine should help ensure that turnout is not embarrassingly low in an election that has, in all truth, failed to capture the imagination.

My hope is for rain in the day, giving way to a fresh, warm late afternoon and evening. That will most benefit the Greens and Labour, ensuring that a Green/Red coalition becomes a real prospect.

The divisions within the local political parties that provide such gold dust for this Blogger

Allie Cannell, one of the more astute political observers around, and the type of organiser that Labour would kill for, has asked one of the more sensible questions of late: “How do you have such good knowledge of all the campaigns in all the wards, BPB??? The political parties would pay a fortune to be as well informed about the opposition as you are.”

The simple response is that the political parties do have all the information themselves but a condition that effects many politicians is intrigue and division, and this leads to some handy tips coming my way.

On divisions, each of the four parties locally (and out of the kindness of my heart I still refer to the Lib Dems as a party rather than a joke with an appalling punch line), is divided to the core. Starting with the Lib Dems, they had two councillors and they managed to split right down the middle. That takes some doing. Imagine what it would be like if they had more activists to fill a phone box!

The Tories are split between the working class Kemptown Conservative Association and the ‘united’ Brighton Pavilion and Hove association. Could this be a bit of my enemy’s enemy is my friend. A uneasy truce exists within the local Tories, but just wait until the evening of 6th May when the knives will be out for Mary Mears, Dee Simpson and Maria Caulfield, especially if the Tories do badly. Payback time.

I heard that at a recent hustings organised by the Brighton and Hove Chamber of Commerce, the Tories were represented by Mary and The Bishop, (Brian Oxley) – Kemptown and Hove together. Mary is said to have responded to every single question while the The Bishop sat serenly by, in silent prayer, without muttering a word!

There are hidden divisions with the Greens, but they are well covered. Originally, the fault line was between those supporting Caroline Lucas for the nomination to fight Brighton Pavilion and those who wanted a local candidate (in the form of Keith Taylor). Dynamic though he may be, Keith is no match for Caroline. I really can’t see that Keith could have pulled off a sensational victory for the Greens last May! Similar divisions persist. Who will be the top two on the Green list for the next European elections. This dispute is simmering. I couldn’t possibly comment on this contest other than to say that women candidates are doing better than male candidates of late, and there are several excellent women Green activists locally.

Labour, traditionally the local party most divided against itself, has few divisions of late, so I am told. Yes, the East Brighton Polituro has taken over from the defeated Queens Park Mafia. So shell-shocked has the party been following two successive and devastating defeats at the polls, that people are pulling together. Yet there was no proper analysis and no changes following previous defeats. But following the third devastating defeat, the reality of which is scheduled to hit home mid afternoon on 6th May, Labour must take a long and hard look at itself.

So why is all of this relevant to Allie’s fascinating question? Politicians of all parties ‘speak’ to me, some directly (you can find me most evenings in the Neptune masquerading as Chris Hawtree), others by Twitter Direct Messaging (@BrightonPolitic) or by emailing me at brightonpoliticsblogger@googlemail.com. My mobile number is 0765 3789 754 123 856 (ha ha ha, as the horse used to say in the John Smith Bitter advert).

I use only a fraction of what I am told. I struggle, believe it or not, to get much out of any Green activist other than Green Amy who sends me the occasional recipe for tasty cakes. The Greens are a disciplined bunch.

As I said above, the parties have all the information that I rely on since most (not all) of it comes from them. I remain just a humble scribe, with few friends and fewer prospects.

Naming names and ‘outing’ people

I’m sitting in Pavilion Gardens reflecting on a comment left on this blog yesterday. Tom Matthews wrote of ‘greenpartymember’: “If you’re going to pretend to be a Green Party member, don’t make your username ‘greenpartymember’”.

This has forced me to think about the number of people who engage with this blog but who hide behind made up names, such as Baron Pepperpot, Steampunk, Hove Lawn, Dr Faust, The Ghost of Nobby Clarke, the Tory Tipster, and Christopher Hawtree.

Others have been masquerading with names such as The Estate Agent, Momma Grizzly, le Toothbrush, Bishop Brian, and The Buddha. Rumour has it that these people are, in reality, Rob Buckwell, Rachael Bates, Mike Macfarlane, Brian Oxley and Bill Randall.

What is it about these people who make comments but not in their own names? I think it is nothing short of a disgrace!

The division in the Tory ranks is deep and it is wide

When I was a member of the Boys Brigade, we used to sing a song that went “Deep and wide, deep and wide, there’s a fountain flowing deep and wide …”. We had hand actions to emphasise thewords, and the speed of the song increased with each verse.

Walking along a corridor in Kings House the other day, I came across a group of Tory councillors singing that song, complete with hand movements. But the words have been changed: “Deep and wide, deep and wide, the division’s so deep and wide …”.

The split in the Tory Party is, indeed, deep and wide. And no more so than in Hangleton and Knoll. Following the untimely death of councillor David Smart, it had been expected that Jo Heard, the daughter of the retiring councillor for Central Hove, Averill Older, would be his natural successor.

But no, one of the Young Turks, Michael Ireland, has been parachuted into the seat. This is a source of a lot of unhappiness in the local Conservative association. Several members are in open rebellion and Jo Heard has, herself, cut her losses with the Tories and is standing as an Independent.

Jo is very well known in the area, has campaigned for years on various issues and is a highly respected fundraiser (for the Alzheimer’s Society). She has routes in the Church, having been active in St Andrew’s Church in Hove. I assume that Bishop Brian (Oxley) is sympathetic to Jo, but party loyalties prevent him from speaking out.

Another of Jo’s claim to fame was having her photograph reproduced on the side of a bus, dressed in a blue dress (appropriate for a Tory) and her arms spread wide “Deep and wide, deep and wide, etc etc”. Believe it or not, the bus was the number 5 to Hangleton, the very one that is about to be saved by Brian Fitch. What a tangled web we weave!

But what happened to that bus and Jo’s image. In June 2009 the bus was, sadly, repainted. And so, too, has Jo repainted her political allegiance. A Tory no more, she is standing as an independent.

Her entry into this election makes the outcome in Hangleton and Knoll most unpredictable. Dawn Barnett remains the favourite for re-election, but Tony Janio’s future is more uncertain. Michael Ireland is the Tory least likely to be elected. Brian Fitch, one of the most able and energetic campaigners inspite of approaching three score years and ten, can be counted on to make a very strong challenge. His cause is helped by Jo’s candidature. It is tough for an independent to be elected, but I would not rule Jo out altogether.

A vampire, a bishop, and a ‘Labour/Green’ activist all standing for the Tories in Hove!

More on the new Tory website, and an answer to the mystery about the disappearance of Moulsecoomb and Bevendean. Momma Grizzly writes: “Just a quick note on Moulsecoomb & Bevendean: it’s covered by the Kemp Town Conservatives rather than the Federation of Brighton Pavilion and Hove & Portslade Conservatives, hence the absence on this site.”

But where better place to start in this next part of my review of the new Tory website than North Portslade and Tevor Alford? Arable writes: “On becoming a councillor, Initially, I spent 3 years on the following committees: Audit Committee; Health Overview & Scrutiny Committee; and Overview & Scrutiny Commission. Since May 2010, I have served on the planning committee and am also the cabinet member for Central Services, an exciting and challenging role.”. And in his spare time he’s pretty good at head-banging along to the likes of Megadeth and Slayer!

The Patcham Mafia (Pidgeon, Theobald G, and Theobald C) have biographies that speak volumes for their years and years and years service to Brighton and Hove, equalled only by the 14 generations of Les Hamiltons in Portslade and the soon-to-be four generations of Fitch’s.

Andrew Hancox, the Tory candidate in Regency, seems to have lost his bearings somewhat: “During this time I have experienced many of the challenges that living in Central Hove presents”. Mr Hancox, you are standing in Re-gen-cy, not Central Hove. It is the other Andrew, Wealls, standing in Central Hove. Re-gen-cy is in Brigh-ton. (It doesn’t really matter since Regency is due to return a Green Kitcat double act. I say this purely to elicit a reaction from my mate Dan Wilson).

Where do I begin with the Tory candidates in South Portslade? The sitting Tory councillor is Steve Harmer-Strange who is joined by Stephen Harbor-Wade! I am not making this up, honest. Any further comment from me would detract from the beauty of the situation.

In Preston Park and in St Peters and North Laine the Tories are fielding paper candidates, an indication that they have written off certain seat as unwinnable. And to think, that the old Preston ward would have gone Tory even if they put up a monkey with a blue rosette up for election. That was the case until Jeane Lepper (I believe it was her) beat a Tory candidate called Nicholas Gibbon! She sure made a monkey out of him …..!

Phlebotomist Denise Cobb is hoping to defend her seat in Westbourne. So busy is Denise she has little time for leisure activities other than “exercise, dance, swimming, cooking, being creative and travelling.” Standing with the Vampire is Bishop Brian, a devout member of the Church of England. Brian Oxley has managed to remain a decent guy in spite of working for Tory MPs for almost 20 years, and is a Tory for whom I have the utmost respect.

In Wish ward the Tories a fielding Garry Peltzer-Dunn. From his statement you would think he was standing for Labour or the Greens: “I have been made increasingly aware by residents that they feel that the City Council is failing to provide even basic services in a proper manner. It is essential that we return to basics and deliver the services residents want in the manner they require.” Garry, it is your party that has been running the show for the past 4 years. It is the Tories that you are saying are failing “to provide even basic services in a proper manner.”

Finally, for today, Withdean. The Barbie and Ken of Brighton politics, the Normans, are joined on the Tory ticket by Robert Nemeth, the third of Mike Weatherley’s staff seeking election. I have previously said that he is one to watch. In fact, all three of Mike’s staff (Robert, Michael Ireland and Momma Grizzly herself, Rachael Bates) have large political futures ahead of them. At some point I will do a review of young politicians locally. These are interesting times, and we have some interesting young activists who should be watched and followed.

Jason Kitcat – total vindication as he is cleared in Council witchhunt

“A victory for openness and democracy” claimed Green councillor Jason Kitcat as the case against him was thrown out by a Tribunal set up to hear the case.  Brighton and Hove City Council is said to have spend “thousands” bringing the case, at a time when they are planning millions of Pounds of cuts.

Those councillors who made the initial allegation against Jason (that would be Tory councillor Ted Kemble, supported by Council Leader Mary Mears and Deputy Leader Brian Oxley) and those who sat on the panel (Labour councillor Jeane Lepper and Lib Dem councillor David Watkins) should hang their heads in shame.

Better still, their involvement in this shameful episode, should be made an electoral issue next May.

Not only is there wide support for Jason Kitcat, condemnation of the action taken against him, not least the squandering of public funds for what some may feel has been party political ends, has come from Tory government ministers Eric Pickles and Grant Shapps.

So a great result for Jason Kitcat and for democracy.  Councillors should not have undemocratic power to deny political representation to voters, particularly when that representation is provided by those councillors’ political opponents.

So, is the end of the affair.  I hope not.  There must be full disclosure regarding the waste of public funds.  I would also suggest those who took action against Jason Kitcat should consider their suitability to hold specific office within the Council.