Falling Lib Dem support in Brunswick and Adelaide and Brian Fitch to save the number 5 bus to Hangleton

Love him or loathe him, few are neutral about Paul Elgood.  Michael Taggart clearly regards councillor Elgood as one of his nearest and dearest when he writes “Paul Elgood is probably the shallowest, most vacuous person I have ever had the misfortune to work with. I shall not miss him when he is forced to find something else to do after the May elections.”  You need to get out more, Michael. 

Clive provides some comfort for Paul Elgood (who, for the record, is not the shallowest, most vacuous person I have ever met).  Clive quotes the Lib Dem vote from recent general elections in Hove and Portslade:

2001: Harold da Souza (Lib Dem) 3823 (9.1%)
2005: Paul Elgood (Lib Dem) 8002 (17.9%)
2010: Paul Elgood (Lib Dem) 11240 (22.6%)

He says that Paul Elgood must have been doing something right. Clive is wrong when trying to draw some conclusion about Paul Elgood’s standing in Brunswich and Adelaide by referencing votes in a general election. Once again I turn to Michael Taggart of the Paul Elgood Fan Club who writes:  “In 2007, Mr Elgood won a measly 942 of over 4,000 votes. David Watkins, now standing against him, had only 200 fewer and two Green candidates had between 400 and 500 votes. That was 4 years ago – before the march of the Greens and before the slump in popularity nationally of the Lib Dems in opinion polls. Add to this that Mr Elgood’s popularity is seemingly on the wane – in 2003, he polled 1,222 votes with no-one else except Mr Watkins polling even half that number – and he certainly has a fight on his hands.”

My view is that a strong campaign by Ollie Sykes and Phelim MacCafferty of the Greens (which is likely), the Lib Dem vote being split between Elgood and David Watkins, and the hopeless state of Labour in the ward, the Greens are in with a realistic chance of winning both seats.

(Regarding being ‘shallow and vacuous’, Clive asks whether Michael Taggart has ever met any of B&H’s current Tory leadership.  Cheap shot, Clive.  Cheap shots are my preserve.)
But more exciting than even a Green win in Brunswick and Adelaide, is Christopher Hawtree’s news that Brian Fitch is returning to Hangleton and asks whether there will be a campaign to save the number 5 bus.  There is a rich vein fpor campaigning here, me thinks.  Does anyone want to launch a campaign to save the number 50 bus to Hollingdean.  It isn’t under threat but, boy, what a great campaigning platform.  (I mentioned the number 50 without reference to Chuck Vere.  A first for me).
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6 Responses

  1. Will Brian Fitch’s recent experience of provincial French politics be turned to useful effect in Hangleton?

    Outside a polling station at the Goldsmid by election I was standing with Alex Phillips when an open-top, sporty car pulled up, and I said to Alex, that’s probably one of the Tories but in fact on the rear bumper was a Labour CoOp sticker, and from the driving seat got… Brian Fitch.

    Perhaps he will park it elsewhere and go round Hangleton on the number 5 for the campaign. If the humber 5 still exists, of course.

  2. BPB, as usual, you’re right. Yes, I’m sure I do need to get out more and dedicate more time to meeting and making acquaintances of the shallow and vacuous people who are missing from my life.

    Just to clarify though I have already met many people who are both more shallow and more vacuous than Mr Elgood; I just haven’t worked with any.

    In all seriousness, Paul knows I am not his biggest fan for various reasons but if I offended him more than I meant to, I apologise.

    Michael

  3. Meanwhile, in Brunswick, the disappearance of the number 5 bus might mean that Western Road is less congested… elsewhere in the ward, I gather that one Labour voter was a bit sharp when asked to vote Green but later realised that a tactical Green vote is the way to stop the Coalition. As Labour has given up on Brunswick, there could be more such votes.

    Not much sign of the Tories canvassing anywhere. Only the Greens have been out in Patcham, for example, where they did very well in the General Election. A very interesting ward indeed.

    • Brunswick and Adelaide council results and Hove and Portslade GE results are not analagous, of course, but as the ward is within the constituency it is surely relevant to the story, no?

      David Watkins’ independent candidacy is being mentioned as if it was fact – have I missed something?

      • A lot of people in Brunswick have said that they wish they could have voted for Caroline Lucas, and the crucial fact about the area is that its population is ever shifting. But, as I have said before, I should not understimate Elgood.

        I doubt that Watkins’s standing or not has any great bearing on it. Does he have a team? The hills, the basements, the ground floors up a flight of steps…

  4. And another thing … BPB fails to mention that the statistical basis for claiming a fall in Lib Dem support in Brunswick is a bit flimsy, if you go beyond the topline figures. In 2003, as Andy pointed out, there was an all postal ballot, which increased turnout. And 2007 was not a vintage Lib Dem year, in spite of what Michael T may remember.

    Thinking about renegade independents prompts me to remember Ann Giebeler – the only Tory elected for Goldsmid in 2003, but who polled a fairly lacklustre 314 votes as an independent in 2007.

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